TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406566
Played Aug 12Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111158111311116
Ulana Dronova
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:45 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 65.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 20–16 Ulana Dronova Ulana Dronova has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Plokhotniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Plokhotniuk
Correct
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1767 vs Dronova 1591
Plokhotniuk
Correct
both rated, 176 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Dronova 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Dronova 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +1 · Dronova -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Plokhotniuk) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plokhotniuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.44 / Dronova 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+2.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406566
Plokhotniuk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Dronova2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk10wins
AwayDronova0wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk100%7 of 7
AwayDronova0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk7Dronova3n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk9Dronova1n = 10Plokhotniuk took 9 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk7Dronova3n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk4Dronova2n = 6Plokhotniuk took 4 of 6
S5Plokhotniuk3Dronova0n = 3Plokhotniuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukDronovaP − DBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.231.2+9.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 179 vs 46 / 10659.8%43.4%107 / 179 vs 46 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.44/Dronova 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113U. Dronova—8720
WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—911813113U. Dronova—115111162
WApr 7 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—711116113U. Dronova—11271152
WApr 6 · 15:40N. Plokhotniuk—1111103U. Dronova—9380
WFeb 26 · 07:05N. Plokhotniuk—12711113U. Dronova—1011891
WFeb 25 · 12:40N. Plokhotniuk—101112153U. Dronova—12410131
WFeb 11 · 06:35N. Plokhotniuk—11113113U. Dronova—551171
WFeb 10 · 16:40N. Plokhotniuk—1111113U. Dronova—7780
WFeb 10 · 11:40N. Plokhotniuk—1112113U. Dronova—61090
WJan 11 · 07:05N. Plokhotniuk—111168113U. Dronova—86111172
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720
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