TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406551
Played Aug 12Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1169111210711118
Alina Kurtenko
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Alina Kurtenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 96 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 81.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 19–6 Alina Kurtenko Alina Kurtenko has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Plokhotniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Plokhotniuk
Correct
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1767 vs Kurtenko 1616
Plokhotniuk
Correct
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Kurtenko 80%
Kurtenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 50% vs Kurtenko 80%
Kurtenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -3 · Kurtenko -1
Plokhotniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurtenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.25 / Kurtenko 3.75
Signal prob.81% / 19%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+6.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406551
Plokhotniuk1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Kurtenko3.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk6wins
AwayKurtenko4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk83.3%5 of 6
AwayKurtenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk6Kurtenko4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk2Kurtenko8n = 10Kurtenko took 8 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk7Kurtenko3n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk4Kurtenko3n = 7Plokhotniuk took 4 of 7
S5Plokhotniuk2Kurtenko1n = 3Plokhotniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukKurtenkoP − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.5+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukKurtenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 179 vs 114 / 21859.8%52.3%107 / 179 vs 114 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.25/Kurtenko 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk—58110A. Kurtenko—1111133
WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—119127113A. Kurtenko—611101182
WJul 23 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Kurtenko—5990
LJul 22 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk—5141161A. Kurtenko—11169113
LJul 22 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—95130A. Kurtenko—1111153
WJun 25 · 07:00N. Plokhotniuk—111612113A. Kurtenko—9181091
WJun 24 · 09:05N. Plokhotniuk—12811113A. Kurtenko—1011631
WJun 18 · 05:30N. Plokhotniuk—101111113A. Kurtenko—126751
WJun 17 · 07:35N. Plokhotniuk—114118123A. Kurtenko—911911102
LMay 30 · 08:05N. Plokhotniuk—14681192A. Kurtenko—1211116113
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Kurtenko10
WAug 20 · 16:40A. Kurtenko1.6781111113V. Kurtenko2.10114571WAug 20 · 15:10A. Kurtenko1.201110211113S. Yureneva4.3381211592WAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:10A. Kurtenko1.80115712113A. Rzhevska1.91311111092WAug 20 · 10:40A. Kurtenko1.1711119113A. Plashchynska4.50261151LAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682LAug 13 · 10:00A. Rzhevska1.91311117113A. Kurtenko1.8011721172LAug 13 · 08:30U. Dronova1.671113113A. Kurtenko2.1031190LAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162WAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133
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