TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12417159
Played Aug 13Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111131210118––
Anna Rzhevska
Away
4.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:30 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Anna Rzhevska below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 89.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 11–3 Anna Rzhevska Anna Rzhevska has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:30What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Plokhotniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-3 in 14
Plokhotniuk
Correct
gap of 8 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1767 vs Rzhevska 1507
Plokhotniuk
Correct
both rated, 260 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Rzhevska 80%
Rzhevska
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 40% vs Rzhevska 70%
Rzhevska
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk -3 · Rzhevska +1
Plokhotniuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rzhevska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.20 / Rzhevska 4.33
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+11.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12417159
Plokhotniuk1.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Rzhevska4.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk7wins
AwayRzhevska3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk100%5 of 5
AwayRzhevska60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk5Rzhevska5n = 10split evenly
S2Plokhotniuk7Rzhevska3n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk7Rzhevska3n = 10Plokhotniuk took 7 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk5Rzhevska1n = 6Plokhotniuk took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukRzhevskaP − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.229.2+6.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukRzhevskaBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 179 vs 141 / 25659.8%55.1%107 / 179 vs 141 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.20/Rzhevska 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.3%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—61112113A. Rzhevska—1131081
WJul 23 · 06:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Rzhevska—1680
WJul 22 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—11115113A. Rzhevska—881151
WJul 22 · 06:30N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Rzhevska—5720
LJul 7 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—221151A. Rzhevska—11115113
LJul 6 · 05:00N. Plokhotniuk—710121192A. Rzhevska—1112109113
LJun 25 · 05:00N. Plokhotniuk—9760A. Rzhevska—1111113
WJun 24 · 11:35N. Plokhotniuk—11119113A. Rzhevska—431171
WJun 18 · 06:30N. Plokhotniuk—91111113A. Rzhevska—117931
WMay 30 · 06:35N. Plokhotniuk—1111113A. Rzhevska—7670
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
A. Rzhevska10
WSep 6 · 16:09Y. Mykhailyk2.201011751A. Rzhevska1.6112211113WSep 6 · 15:10O. Melnik6.00111351A. Rzhevska1.1111811113LSep 6 · 13:40A. Rzhevska1.50811481Y. Mykhailyk2.5011211113WSep 6 · 12:10A. Rzhevska1.28911511113O. Kolbasenko3.5011211392WSep 6 · 10:40A. Rzhevska1.051211113A. Plashchynska8.5010560LSep 1 · 10:30A. Rzhevska1.28109100V. Kurtenko3.501211123WSep 1 · 09:00A. Rzhevska1.50119114113Y. Mykhailyk2.5071141192LSep 1 · 07:30A. Rzhevska2.205860S. Yureneva1.611111113WSep 1 · 06:00A. Rzhevska1.061111113A. Plashchynska8.007630LSep 1 · 04:30A. Rzhevska1.738480P. Pashchenko2.001111113
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