TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12284428
Played Jul 23Finished
Nataliia Plokhotniuk
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611411119118
Roksolana Budnyk
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeNataliia Plokhotniuk to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingNataliia Plokhotniuk above · Roksolana Budnyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Nataliia Plokhotniuk at 83.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Nataliia Plokhotniuk 15–3 Roksolana Budnyk Roksolana Budnyk has won 3 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Plokhotniuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-3 in 18
Plokhotniuk
Correct
gap of 12 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Plokhotniuk 1842 vs Budnyk 1678
Plokhotniuk
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Plokhotniuk 60% vs Budnyk 40%
Plokhotniuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Plokhotniuk 60% vs Budnyk 30%
Plokhotniuk
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Plokhotniuk +2 · Budnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Plokhotniuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Budnyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPlokhotniuk 1.25 / Budnyk 3.75
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Plokhotniuk)+8.8pp
Setka Cup Women · #12284428
Plokhotniuk1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Budnyk3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePlokhotniuk9wins
AwayBudnyk1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlokhotniuk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePlokhotniuk88.9%8 of 9
AwayBudnykn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Plokhotniuk9Budnyk1n = 10Plokhotniuk took 9 of 10
S2Plokhotniuk6Budnyk4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S3Plokhotniuk6Budnyk4n = 10Plokhotniuk took 6 of 10
S4Plokhotniuk6Budnyk0n = 6Plokhotniuk took 6 of 6
S5Plokhotniuk2Budnyk1n = 3Plokhotniuk took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPlokhotniukBudnykP − BBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.830.5+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPlokhotniukBudnykBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 177 vs 57 / 11462.2%50%110 / 177 vs 57 / 114Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlokhotniukPlokhotniuk 1.25/Budnyk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.8%
Plokhotniuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Plokhotniuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 08:00N. Plokhotniuk—116411113R. Budnyk—81111982
WJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—9670
WJul 6 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—6950
WMar 26 · 07:35N. Plokhotniuk—11118133R. Budnyk—5911111
WMar 25 · 15:10N. Plokhotniuk—11118113R. Budnyk—661181
LMar 10 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk—11521152R. Budnyk—811115113
WFeb 26 · 08:05N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—4960
WFeb 25 · 18:10N. Plokhotniuk—1111113R. Budnyk—2440
WFeb 11 · 11:35N. Plokhotniuk—1081211113R. Budnyk—121110392
WFeb 10 · 15:40N. Plokhotniuk—111011113R. Budnyk—612741
N. Plokhotniuk10
WAug 13 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.501111113U. Dronova2.508720LAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113LAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.2061112113A. Rzhevska4.331131081LAug 13 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.2858110A. Kurtenko3.501111133LAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.44911813113U. Dronova2.63115111162WAug 12 · 06:00N. Plokhotniuk1.25119127113A. Kurtenko3.75611101182LAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113
R. Budnyk10
LAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 10:00A. Kurtenko2.2081150R. Budnyk1.611113113WAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113WAug 12 · 06:30U. Dronova1.80911951R. Budnyk1.9111511113WAug 12 · 04:30N. Plokhotniuk1.251211891R. Budnyk3.7514911113LJul 23 · 09:41A. Rzhevska3.75811115113R. Budnyk1.2511591172WJul 23 · 07:00R. Budnyk1.611111113A. Kurtenko2.206560WJul 23 · 06:00A. Ovriakh1.4097100R. Budnyk2.751111123LJul 23 · 05:00R. Budnyk1.40631111A. Rzhevska2.7511117113LJul 6 · 09:58N. Plokhotniuk1.281111113R. Budnyk3.509670
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