TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406569
Played Aug 12Finished
Alina Ovriakh
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119113511611
Iolanta Yevtodii
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAlina Ovriakh above · Iolanta Yevtodii below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 54.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Alina Ovriakh 6–6 Iolanta Yevtodii Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ovriakh
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovriakh 1890 vs Yevtodii 1920
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovriakh 80% vs Yevtodii 60%
Ovriakh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovriakh 90% vs Yevtodii 70%
Ovriakh
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovriakh +4 · Yevtodii +2
Ovriakh
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ovriakh) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovriakh form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvriakh 1.80 / Yevtodii 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ovriakh)+2.5pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406569
Ovriakh1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Yevtodii1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvriakh5wins
AwayYevtodii5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvriakh66.7%4 of 6
AwayYevtodii75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovriakh6Yevtodii4n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S2Ovriakh6Yevtodii4n = 10Ovriakh took 6 of 10
S3Ovriakh4Yevtodii6n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S4Ovriakh5Yevtodii3n = 8Ovriakh took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvriakhYevtodiiO − YBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.536.5+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvriakhYevtodiiBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 69 vs 103 / 14666.7%70.6%46 / 69 vs 103 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.42.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiOvriakh 1.80/Yevtodii 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ovriakh · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 7 · 08:30A. Ovriakh—1111113I. Yevtodii—7590
LJun 25 · 04:30A. Ovriakh—118117102I. Yevtodii—711611123
LJun 24 · 12:05A. Ovriakh—11771172I. Yevtodii—611115113
LJun 18 · 05:00A. Ovriakh—915571I. Yevtodii—111311113
WJun 17 · 12:05A. Ovriakh—61312113I. Yevtodii—11111071
WMay 30 · 11:35A. Ovriakh—11114113I. Yevtodii—941171
WMay 29 · 06:30A. Ovriakh—111016113I. Yevtodii—5121481
WMay 6 · 09:05A. Ovriakh—11116113I. Yevtodii—541141
LMay 5 · 10:33A. Ovriakh—79110I. Yevtodii—1111133
LMay 5 · 07:05A. Ovriakh—811771I. Yevtodii—11611113
A. Ovriakh10
WAug 13 · 11:30A. Ovriakh1.171111113A. Rzhevska4.509970WAug 13 · 09:30U. Dronova2.005680A. Ovriakh1.731111113WAug 13 · 07:30N. Plokhotniuk1.8010750A. Ovriakh1.911211113WAug 13 · 06:30A. Ovriakh1.25981113113A. Kurtenko3.75111131162LAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 10:30N. Plokhotniuk1.83971191A. Ovriakh1.8311118113LAug 12 · 09:30A. Ovriakh1.50118951U. Dronova2.5091111113LAug 12 · 08:30A. Ovriakh1.44118681R. Budnyk2.6391111113WAug 12 · 05:00A. Ovriakh1.301111113A. Kurtenko3.407520WJul 23 · 10:03A. Ovriakh1.91119117123N. Plokhotniuk1.80411711102
I. Yevtodii10
WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.1714114113A. Kurtenko4.501271171WAug 12 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.2541111113U. Dronova3.75116561WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii1.40361111113N. Plokhotniuk2.7511116792
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