TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup Women
Setka Cup WomenMatch #12406568
Played Aug 12Finished
Iolanta Yevtodii
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411116115116––
Ulana Dronova
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeIolanta Yevtodii to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIolanta Yevtodii above · Ulana Dronova below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 65 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Iolanta Yevtodii at 79.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Iolanta Yevtodii 24–8 Ulana Dronova Ulana Dronova has won 8 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Yevtodii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-8 in 32
Yevtodii
Correct
gap of 16 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Yevtodii 1916 vs Dronova 1591
Yevtodii
Correct
both rated, 326 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Yevtodii 60% vs Dronova 80%
Dronova
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Yevtodii 70% vs Dronova 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Yevtodii +1 · Dronova +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Yevtodii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dronova form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsYevtodii 1.25 / Dronova 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Yevtodii)+4.0pp
Setka Cup Women · #12406568
Yevtodii1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Dronova3.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeYevtodii7wins
AwayDronova3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderYevtodii leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeYevtodii100%5 of 5
AwayDronova60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Yevtodii5Dronova5n = 10split evenly
S2Yevtodii8Dronova2n = 10Yevtodii took 8 of 10
S3Yevtodii6Dronova4n = 10Yevtodii took 6 of 10
S4Yevtodii4Dronova2n = 6Yevtodii took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricYevtodiiDronovaY − DBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.432.5+5.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricYevtodiiDronovaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 145 vs 43 / 9670.3%44.8%102 / 145 vs 43 / 96Avg sets wonper match2.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.135.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
YevtodiiYevtodii 1.25/Dronova 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Yevtodii · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Yevtodii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 7 · 06:30I. Yevtodii—61111113U. Dronova—119561
WApr 6 · 17:40I. Yevtodii—1111113U. Dronova—8320
WFeb 26 · 06:05I. Yevtodii—111111113U. Dronova—971391
LFeb 25 · 18:40I. Yevtodii—1111111192U. Dronova—131386103
LFeb 11 · 11:05I. Yevtodii—38100U. Dronova—1111123
WJan 11 · 06:05I. Yevtodii—1111113U. Dronova—3840
WJan 10 · 12:40I. Yevtodii—11138113U. Dronova—2111191
LSep 6 · 11:40I. Yevtodii—811981U. Dronova—11511113
WAug 10 · 05:05I. Yevtodii—612116113U. Dronova—111081162
WAug 9 · 15:40I. Yevtodii—1114113U. Dronova—81270
I. Yevtodii10
WAug 13 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.17291111113A. Kurtenko4.5011118682WAug 13 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.50611381I. Yevtodii1.5011511113WAug 13 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.229101111113A. Rzhevska4.0011128862WAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113WAug 13 · 05:30I. Yevtodii1.83811711113A. Ovriakh1.8311911792WAug 12 · 11:00I. Yevtodii1.2081211113R. Budnyk4.331110651WAug 12 · 09:00N. Plokhotniuk2.3858100I. Yevtodii1.531111123WAug 12 · 08:00I. Yevtodii1.1714114113A. Kurtenko4.501271171WAug 12 · 07:00A. Ovriakh1.80101111562I. Yevtodii1.91129311113WJul 7 · 10:08I. Yevtodii1.40361111113N. Plokhotniuk2.7511116792
U. Dronova10
WAug 21 · 09:00Y. Mykhailyk3.40136811102U. Dronova1.301111115123LAug 21 · 07:30U. Dronova1.801250A. Rzhevska1.911111113LAug 21 · 06:00U. Dronova1.30118111382S. Yureneva3.40611715113LAug 21 · 04:30U. Dronova1.576131171P. Pashchenko2.2511157113LAug 20 · 17:40U. Dronova1.7311114142A. Rzhevska2.00431111113WAug 20 · 15:40V. Kurtenko3.00116951U. Dronova1.3671111113LAug 20 · 13:40A. Kurtenko2.2551111113U. Dronova1.57117641WAug 20 · 12:40U. Dronova1.131111113A. Plashchynska5.503470WAug 20 · 11:40S. Yureneva3.2511118652U. Dronova1.33491111113LAug 13 · 07:00U. Dronova4.0011731162I. Yevtodii1.22611118113
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