Ales Hlawatschke vs Daniel Kouble 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13099209

Played Sep 10Finished

Ales Hlawatschke

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

118611114118––

Daniel Kouble

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Ales Hlawatschke to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingAles Hlawatschke above · Daniel Kouble below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ales Hlawatschke at 54.0%

70 points played in total.

H2H Ales Hlawatschke 4–3 Daniel Kouble Daniel Kouble has won 3 of their 7 meetings.

Last 7 · 4–3Same sideHead to head

The pickConfirm

Sealed 14:05

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Kouble

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-3 in 7

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hlawatschke 1582 vs Kouble 1515

Hlawatschke

Correct

both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hlawatschke 40% vs Kouble 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hlawatschke 50% vs Kouble 40%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Hlawatschke +1 · Kouble +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hlawatschke)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Kouble form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHlawatschke 1.83 / Kouble 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Hlawatschke)+4.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13099209

Hlawatschke1.83

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

Kouble1.83

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 7 meetings

HomeHlawatschke4wins

AwayKouble3wins

3 of 7 to a deciderHlawatschke leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeHlawatschke100%3 of 3

AwayKouble75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hlawatschke3Kouble4n = 7Kouble took 4 of 7

S2Hlawatschke4Kouble3n = 7Hlawatschke took 4 of 7

S3Hlawatschke4Kouble3n = 7Hlawatschke took 4 of 7

S4Hlawatschke4Kouble1n = 5Hlawatschke took 4 of 5

S5Hlawatschke1Kouble2n = 3Kouble took 2 of 3

How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home114%

3–1Four sets, home229%

3–2Decider, home114%

2–3Decider, away229%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away114%

These 7 meetings

MetricHlawatschkeKoubleH − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match41.339.1+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHlawatschkeKoubleBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 216 vs 106 / 22449.5%47.3%107 / 216 vs 106 / 224Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Hlawatschke

Hlawatschke 1.83/Kouble 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Hlawatschke · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Hlawatschke won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record7

LMay 26 · 22:00A. Hlawatschke—61190D. Kouble—1113113

LApr 29 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke—781113112D. Kouble—1111911133

WMar 31 · 23:30A. Hlawatschke—1211113D. Kouble—10480

WFeb 5 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke—1111711113D. Kouble—71311892

WFeb 3 · 24:30A. Hlawatschke—81111113D. Kouble—119891

WNov 5 · 01:30A. Hlawatschke—11117113D. Kouble—671191

LOct 20 · 22:00A. Hlawatschke—81111982D. Kouble—114711113

A. Hlawatschke10

WSep 10 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.734111310113M. Vedmoch2.00119111292 LSep 10 · 24:00J. Hradecky1.67116811113A. Hlawatschke2.1091111962 LSep 9 · 22:30V. Cermak3.5012411113A. Hlawatschke1.281011561 WSep 9 · 03:00D. Tuma2.105960A. Hlawatschke1.671111113 LSep 9 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke2.38314951M. Sobisek1.53111211113 LSep 9 · 01:00A. Hlawatschke1.6795111552D. Tuma2.101111713113 LSep 9 · 24:00M. Sopko1.331111113A. Hlawatschke3.256760 WSep 8 · 22:30V. Cermak2.631011111262A. Hlawatschke1.441213810113 WAug 25 · 03:28A. Hlawatschke1.3671111113R. Krejci3.00118981 WAug 25 · 02:00R. Krejci3.25139111332A. Hlawatschke1.331111915113

D. Kouble10

WSep 10 · 24:30D. Kouble1.7313811113V. Cermak2.001111781 LSep 9 · 23:00D. Kouble2.63861241J. Hradecky1.44111110113 LSep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.201211113D. Kouble1.6110560 WSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113 LSep 8 · 01:30D. Kouble1.83112121112J. Dedek1.83811147113 LSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.25118119143D. Kouble1.57911711122 WSep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.3894100D. Kouble1.531111123 WSep 7 · 22:30D. Kouble1.80811112113P. Fojt1.9111861162 LSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180 LSep 5 · 01:00R. Krejci1.6111114113D. Kouble2.20881151

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