TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13105474
Played Sep 10Finished
Daniel Kouble
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311811117118––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:50 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Kouble to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Kouble above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Daniel Kouble at 61.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Kouble 8–3 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:50What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kouble
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Kouble
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kouble 1504 vs Cermak 1508
Cermak
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kouble 20% vs Cermak 40%
Cermak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kouble 30% vs Cermak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kouble -2 · Cermak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kouble) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kouble form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKouble 1.73 / Cermak 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cermak)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13105474
Kouble1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 15 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it53% 9 of 17
Cermak2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 87 of 201
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKouble7wins
AwayCermak3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKouble leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKouble83.3%5 of 6
AwayCermak50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kouble6Cermak4n = 10Kouble took 6 of 10
S2Kouble4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S3Kouble8Cermak2n = 10Kouble took 8 of 10
S4Kouble7Cermak2n = 9Kouble took 7 of 9
S5Kouble1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKoubleCermakK − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.4+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKoubleCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 223 vs 544 / 106547.1%51.1%105 / 223 vs 544 / 1065Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubleKouble 1.73/Cermak 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kouble · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kouble won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 17 · 02:00D. Kouble—11811173V. Cermak—5119151
WMay 13 · 02:30D. Kouble—11811113V. Cermak—311971
LFeb 4 · 23:00D. Kouble—631181V. Cermak—11111113
LJan 2 · 14:00D. Kouble—56111392V. Cermak—1111611113
WJan 2 · 11:30D. Kouble—51111113V. Cermak—114381
LJan 2 · 08:30D. Kouble—13881232V. Cermak—11111110113
WOct 23 · 01:00D. Kouble—11811113V. Cermak—811981
WOct 2 · 02:00D. Kouble—81115113V. Cermak—1161381
WFeb 27 · 13:00D. Kouble—1113410123V. Cermak—5111112102
WFeb 24 · 08:00D. Kouble—1111123V. Cermak—89100
D. Kouble10
LSep 9 · 23:00D. Kouble2.63861241J. Hradecky1.44111110113LSep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.201211113D. Kouble1.6110560WSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113LSep 8 · 01:30D. Kouble1.83112121112J. Dedek1.83811147113LSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.25118119143D. Kouble1.57911711122WSep 7 · 23:30V. Postelt2.3894100D. Kouble1.531111123WSep 7 · 22:30D. Kouble1.80811112113P. Fojt1.9111861162LSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180LSep 5 · 01:00R. Krejci1.6111114113D. Kouble2.20881151LSep 4 · 23:30D. Kouble2.201581181T. Janata1.6117119113
V. Cermak10
LSep 10 · 01:30V. Cermak2.6341451162J. Hradecky1.441112117113WSep 9 · 23:30M. Vedmoch3.009111281V. Cermak1.36111310113WSep 9 · 22:30V. Cermak3.5012411113A. Hlawatschke1.281011561LSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113LSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420LSep 8 · 23:30D. Tuma2.10115911113V. Cermak1.6781111952LSep 8 · 22:30V. Cermak2.631011111262A. Hlawatschke1.441213810113LSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650WSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721LSep 8 · 15:30M. Sobisek1.611111123V. Cermak2.2075100
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