TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092725
Played Sep 9Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611115511811––
Martin Sopko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sopko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Martin Sopko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 68 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Sopko at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 10–6 Martin Sopko Martin Sopko has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cermak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Cermak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1483 vs Sopko 1609
Sopko
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 20% vs Sopko 40%
Sopko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 30% vs Sopko 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -4 · Sopko +1
Cermak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sopko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sopko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.80 / Sopko 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sopko)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092725
Cermak1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 150 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Sopko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back36% 16 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak6wins
AwaySopko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak83.3%5 of 6
AwaySopko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak6Sopko4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Cermak7Sopko3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Cermak6Sopko4n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Cermak1Sopko3n = 4Sopko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakSopkoC − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.133.6+0.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakSopkoBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1065 vs 164 / 35351%46.5%543 / 1065 vs 164 / 353Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SopkoCermak 1.80/Sopko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sopko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sopko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak—46120M. Sopko—1111143
WAug 26 · 23:30V. Cermak—1111113M. Sopko—8360
LAug 12 · 22:00V. Cermak—12615762M. Sopko—10111311113
WJul 9 · 03:00V. Cermak—51511123M. Sopko—11137101
WJul 9 · 01:30V. Cermak—1112113M. Sopko—81090
WJun 21 · 16:30V. Cermak—111161113M. Sopko—94111142
WMar 19 · 23:30V. Cermak—1111113M. Sopko—8680
WMar 3 · 21:58V. Cermak—1111113M. Sopko—9190
LMar 3 · 21:30V. Cermak—815811M. Sopko—111311113
LFeb 11 · 04:30V. Cermak—8890M. Sopko—1111113
V. Cermak10
LSep 9 · 24:30M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507420LSep 8 · 23:30D. Tuma2.10115911113V. Cermak1.6781111952LSep 8 · 22:30V. Cermak2.631011111262A. Hlawatschke1.441213810113LSep 8 · 17:29M. Sobisek1.501111113V. Cermak2.507650WSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721LSep 8 · 15:30M. Sobisek1.611111123V. Cermak2.2075100WSep 8 · 14:00V. Cermak1.61511611113J. Stolfa2.2011311562LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113
M. Sopko10
WSep 9 · 24:00M. Sopko1.331111113A. Hlawatschke3.256760LSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143LAug 27 · 02:30J. Hradecky2.50111159113M. Sopko1.5085111162LAug 27 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.67911911113M. Sopko2.1011811692LAug 26 · 23:30M. Sopko2.108360V. Cermak1.671111113WAug 26 · 22:00M. Sopko2.63541111113M. Regner1.4411115732LAug 23 · 20:58M. Sopko2.0011139792R. Pacha1.735111111113LAug 23 · 20:30M. Wagner1.501111173M. Sopko2.5096150LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sopko1.8395110M. Skakal1.831111133
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