TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092970
Played Sep 8Finished
Martin Sobisek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171151210––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:39 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobisek to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobisek above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Martin Sobisek at 58.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobisek 32–20 Vladimir Cermak Vladimir Cermak has won 20 of their 52 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:39What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sobisek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-20 in 52
Sobisek
Correct
gap of 12 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobisek 1562 vs Cermak 1560
Sobisek
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobisek 40% vs Cermak 60%
Cermak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobisek 60% vs Cermak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobisek +1 · Cermak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Sobisek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobisek 1.61 / Cermak 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Sobisek)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092970
Sobisek1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 107 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it98% 59 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it78% 78 of 100
Cermak2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 88 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back26% 29 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobisek8wins
AwayCermak2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSobisek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobisek88.9%8 of 9
AwayCermakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobisek9Cermak1n = 10Sobisek took 9 of 10
S2Sobisek6Cermak4n = 10Sobisek took 6 of 10
S3Sobisek4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Sobisek5Cermak3n = 8Sobisek took 5 of 8
S5Sobisek2Cermak1n = 3Sobisek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobisekCermakS − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.837.0+4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobisekCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime546 / 1170 vs 544 / 106146.7%51.3%546 / 1170 vs 544 / 1061Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobisekSobisek 1.61/Cermak 2.20
Hit
What we said
58.5%
Sobisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sobisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 22:30M. Sobisek—11115113V. Cermak—981181
WSep 6 · 18:30M. Sobisek—1111113V. Cermak—5450
WAug 26 · 22:30M. Sobisek—118116113V. Cermak—51131152
WAug 26 · 21:29M. Sobisek—11115113V. Cermak—871191
WAug 26 · 19:00M. Sobisek—151015143V. Cermak—131213121
WAug 25 · 21:05M. Sobisek—12911123V. Cermak—10119101
WAug 25 · 18:30M. Sobisek—13118113V. Cermak—1121161
LAug 25 · 17:30M. Sobisek—11139972V. Cermak—6111111113
LAug 25 · 15:30M. Sobisek—71080V. Cermak—1112113
WAug 24 · 01:30M. Sobisek—111186113V. Cermak—78111192
M. Sobisek10
LSep 8 · 16:30J. Stolfa1.611114133M. Sobisek2.20812110WSep 8 · 14:30M. Vedmoch2.20912120M. Sobisek1.611114143LSep 7 · 02:58R. Krejci2.631111113M. Sobisek1.449480WSep 7 · 02:00M. Sobisek1.4412712113R. Krejci2.6310111051LSep 7 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.44511341M. Volf2.6311711113LSep 7 · 24:00M. Chlebecek1.731111113M. Sobisek2.006890WSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:29M. Sobisek2.10121196113M. Chlebecek1.67109111172WSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.005811101M. Chlebecek1.7311117123
V. Cermak10
WSep 8 · 16:00V. Cermak1.4011911113M. Vedmoch2.75911721WSep 8 · 14:00V. Cermak1.61511611113J. Stolfa2.2011311562LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113
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