TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13091760
Played Sep 8Finished
Vladimir Cermak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511113611115116
Jakub Stolfa
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Cermak above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 80 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 64.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Cermak 9–3 Jakub Stolfa Jakub Stolfa has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Cermak
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cermak 1548 vs Stolfa 1577
Stolfa
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cermak 40% vs Stolfa 20%
Cermak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cermak 40% vs Stolfa 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cermak -2 · Stolfa -3
Stolfa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stolfa form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCermak 1.61 / Stolfa 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Stolfa)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13091760
Cermak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 150 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it91% 77 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Stolfa2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 61 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back39% 25 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCermak8wins
AwayStolfa2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCermak87.5%7 of 8
AwayStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cermak8Stolfa2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S2Cermak7Stolfa3n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Cermak8Stolfa2n = 10Cermak took 8 of 10
S4Cermak0Stolfa5n = 5Stolfa took 5 of 5
S5Cermak3Stolfa0n = 3Cermak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCermakStolfaC − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.531.6+7.9per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCermakStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime543 / 1060 vs 176 / 34151.2%51.6%543 / 1060 vs 176 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakCermak 1.61/Stolfa 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 21:06V. Cermak—1112119153J. Stolfa—514611132
WSep 6 · 19:00V. Cermak—1011119113J. Stolfa—12991192
LAug 25 · 19:30V. Cermak—1111291J. Stolfa—13511113
WAug 21 · 11:00V. Cermak—1111153J. Stolfa—86130
WAug 8 · 16:00V. Cermak—1111103J. Stolfa—6380
LApr 9 · 07:30V. Cermak—125971J. Stolfa—101111113
WJan 27 · 13:57V. Cermak—1111113J. Stolfa—6660
WJan 27 · 12:30V. Cermak—1111113J. Stolfa—7530
WJul 25 · 11:30V. Cermak—118119113J. Stolfa—71131142
WJul 17 · 09:08V. Cermak—1111123J. Stolfa—65100
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 28 · 13:00V. Vejvoda2.38671113113V. Cermak1.53111181192
J. Stolfa10
LSep 8 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.008870M. Vedmoch1.731111113LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113
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