TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013775
Played Aug 26Finished
Martin Sopko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311611––––
Vladimir Cermak
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:06 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeVladimir Cermak to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sopko above · Vladimir Cermak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Vladimir Cermak at 59.8%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sopko 5–9 Vladimir Cermak Martin Sopko has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cermak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-9 in 14
Cermak
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopko 1645 vs Cermak 1663
Cermak
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopko 40% vs Cermak 20%
Sopko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopko 40% vs Cermak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopko +1 · Cermak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Cermak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cermak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopko 2.10 / Cermak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Cermak)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013775
Sopko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Cermak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 148 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it92% 75 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it80% 117 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSopko4wins
AwayCermak6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCermak leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSopko50%2 of 4
AwayCermak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopko4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S2Sopko3Cermak7n = 10Cermak took 7 of 10
S3Sopko4Cermak6n = 10Cermak took 6 of 10
S4Sopko5Cermak1n = 6Sopko took 5 of 6
S5Sopko1Cermak2n = 3Cermak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSopkoCermakS − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.336.30.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopkoCermakBasisWin rate · lifetime162 / 351 vs 545 / 105546.2%51.7%162 / 351 vs 545 / 1055Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CermakSopko 2.10/Cermak 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Cermak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cermak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 22:00M. Sopko—10111311113V. Cermak—12615762
LJul 9 · 03:00M. Sopko—11137101V. Cermak—51511123
LJul 9 · 01:30M. Sopko—81090V. Cermak—1112113
LJun 21 · 16:30M. Sopko—94111142V. Cermak—111161113
LMar 19 · 23:30M. Sopko—8680V. Cermak—1111113
LMar 3 · 21:58M. Sopko—9190V. Cermak—1111113
WMar 3 · 21:30M. Sopko—111311113V. Cermak—815811
WFeb 11 · 04:30M. Sopko—1111113V. Cermak—8890
LFeb 10 · 23:30M. Sopko—12681132V. Cermak—1011116113
WFeb 10 · 20:00M. Sopko—71111113V. Cermak—113681
M. Sopko10
WAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143LAug 27 · 02:30J. Hradecky2.50111159113M. Sopko1.5085111162LAug 27 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.67911911113M. Sopko2.1011811692WAug 26 · 22:00M. Sopko2.63541111113M. Regner1.4411115732LAug 23 · 20:58M. Sopko2.0011139792R. Pacha1.735111111113LAug 23 · 20:30M. Wagner1.501111173M. Sopko2.5096150LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sopko1.8395110M. Skakal1.831111133WAug 23 · 18:30R. Pacha1.449940M. Sopko2.631111113WAug 23 · 17:01M. Sopko1.8011711113M. Klement1.91811661LAug 23 · 16:30M. Sopko2.2091171222J. Louda1.611191110113
V. Cermak10
LSep 7 · 03:30M. Chlebecek1.9091111123V. Cermak1.801159101LSep 7 · 01:30V. Cermak1.73101191182M. Chlebecek2.00129113113WSep 7 · 24:30R. Krejci1.809980V. Cermak1.911111113WSep 6 · 23:30M. Volf1.618860V. Cermak2.201111113LSep 6 · 22:30V. Cermak2.10981181M. Sobisek1.6711115113WSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:00M. Chlebecek2.209111610113V. Cermak1.61116141272WSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113LSep 6 · 18:30V. Cermak2.005450M. Sobisek1.731111113LAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143
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V. Cermak
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