TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013267
Played Aug 26Finished
Martin Sopko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511411115117113
Michal Regner
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Sopko above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 79 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Michal Regner at 68.5%
79 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sopko 1–4 Michal Regner Martin Sopko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:58What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Regner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sopko 1634 vs Regner 1643
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sopko 40% vs Regner 20%
Sopko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sopko 40% vs Regner 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sopko -3 · Regner -1
Sopko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSopko 2.63 / Regner 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013267
Sopko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 36 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Regner1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 113 of 218
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it70% 82 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSopko1wins
AwayRegner4wins
Regner leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSopkon = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayRegner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sopko0Regner5n = 5Regner took 5 of 5
S2Sopko2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S3Sopko2Regner3n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S4Sopko1Regner2n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricSopkoRegnerS − RBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match32.037.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSopkoRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime161 / 350 vs 511 / 106246%48.1%161 / 350 vs 511 / 1062Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerSopko 2.63/Regner 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sopko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 13 · 02:30M. Sopko—131111113M. Regner—156891
LDec 25 · 04:00M. Sopko—811591M. Regner—11611113
LDec 25 · 24:30M. Sopko—66100M. Regner—1111123
LSep 4 · 01:00M. Sopko—691171M. Regner—11116113
LAug 3 · 19:00M. Sopko—69110M. Regner—1111133
M. Sopko10
WAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143LAug 27 · 02:30J. Hradecky2.50111159113M. Sopko1.5085111162LAug 27 · 01:00M. Sobisek1.67911911113M. Sopko2.1011811692LAug 26 · 23:30M. Sopko2.108360V. Cermak1.671111113LAug 23 · 20:58M. Sopko2.0011139792R. Pacha1.735111111113LAug 23 · 20:30M. Wagner1.501111173M. Sopko2.5096150LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sopko1.8395110M. Skakal1.831111133WAug 23 · 18:30R. Pacha1.449940M. Sopko2.631111113WAug 23 · 17:01M. Sopko1.8011711113M. Klement1.91811661LAug 23 · 16:30M. Sopko2.2091171222J. Louda1.611191110113
M. Regner10
WSep 6 · 02:59M. Pikous1.738860M. Regner2.001111113WSep 6 · 02:30M. Sychra1.73511931M. Regner2.0011711113LSep 6 · 01:00J. Tazler2.5011811113M. Regner1.50511551LSep 5 · 23:30M. Regner2.25118511102K. Schopf1.57511117123LSep 5 · 22:00M. Regner2.00115861M. Pikous1.7381111113LSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161LSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Regner1.73117913113D. Hofman2.00911111162WSep 4 · 06:00J. Stolfa2.204980M. Regner1.611111113WSep 3 · 09:28M. Regner2.2011128113M. Klement1.617101141
Upcoming Matches
M. Sopko
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M. Regner
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