TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094638
Played Sep 8Finished
Oleksandr Osadchyi
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611811119811––
Yaroslav Kovshun
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:47 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Kovshun to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Osadchyi above · Yaroslav Kovshun below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 75 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yaroslav Kovshun at 70.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Osadchyi 0–1 Yaroslav Kovshun Oleksandr Osadchyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kovshun
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Osadchyi 1533 vs Kovshun 1522
Osadchyi
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osadchyi 40% vs Kovshun 20%
Osadchyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osadchyi 50% vs Kovshun 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Osadchyi +1 · Kovshun -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Kovshun)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovshun form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsadchyi 3.50 / Kovshun 1.28
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Kovshun)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13094638
Osadchyi3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 111 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back22% 27 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 75
Kovshun1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 87 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it78% 63 of 81
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOsadchyi0wins
AwayKovshun1wins
Kovshun leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOsadchyiKovshunO − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match33.042.0−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsadchyiKovshunBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 856 vs 338 / 63351.1%53.4%437 / 856 vs 338 / 633Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovshunOsadchyi 3.50/Kovshun 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Kovshun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovshun won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 8 · 05:05O. Osadchyi—681181Y. Kovshun—11119113
O. Osadchyi10
WSep 7 · 10:30O. Osadchyi2.5011119143V. Kolesnykov1.509811121LSep 7 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.8361481182D. Khairov1.831112116113LSep 7 · 07:30O. Osadchyi2.25111110832S. Solomko1.57861211113LSep 7 · 06:00O. Osadchyi5.004690A. Troyan1.141111113WSep 7 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.831112113O. Volynets1.8361060LSep 3 · 10:30O. Osadchyi1.53117651I. Emets2.3851111113LSep 3 · 09:00O. Osadchyi1.737410D. Khairov2.001111113WSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571WSep 3 · 06:00O. Osadchyi2.2012511113S. Solomko1.611011731WSep 3 · 04:30O. Osadchyi1.30119118113E. Populovskyi3.4031161172
Y. Kovshun10
LSep 5 · 10:52A. Troyan1.73118711113Y. Kovshun2.0071111272WSep 5 · 09:50Y. Kovshun1.50314119123A. Troyan2.501112811102LSep 5 · 08:48Y. Volkov1.731113113Y. Kovshun2.0081170LSep 5 · 07:48A. Kotiash1.91117711113Y. Kovshun1.8091111972LSep 5 · 06:18I. Efimenko1.36148115113Y. Kovshun3.00121171162LSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 09:00Y. Volkov1.679111111113Y. Kovshun2.1011136912WSep 4 · 08:00Y. Kovshun1.401111133A. Troyan2.7588110WSep 4 · 07:00A. Kotiash1.57118841Y. Kovshun2.2591111113WSep 4 · 05:30Y. Kovshun3.00891111133R. Sopivnyk1.36111188112
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