TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094475
Played Sep 8Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012711115117611
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 62.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 2–3 Vsevolod Kheresko Dmitriy Belanchik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1222 vs Kheresko 1211
Belanchik
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 60% vs Kheresko 40%
Belanchik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 60% vs Kheresko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik +1 · Kheresko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kheresko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.50 / Kheresko 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kheresko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094475
Belanchik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Kheresko1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 95 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 78 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBelanchik2wins
AwayKheresko3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKheresko leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKheresko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik2Kheresko3n = 5Kheresko took 3 of 5
S2Belanchik3Kheresko2n = 5Belanchik took 3 of 5
S3Belanchik2Kheresko3n = 5Kheresko took 3 of 5
S4Belanchik2Kheresko1n = 3Belanchik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricBelanchikKhereskoB − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.435.8−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 235 vs 208 / 41644.7%50%105 / 235 vs 208 / 416Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoBelanchik 2.50/Kheresko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 20 · 04:55D. Belanchik—4970V. Kheresko—1111113
LJul 26 · 12:25D. Belanchik—111181142V. Kheresko—913119113
LJul 3 · 04:55D. Belanchik—911891V. Kheresko—11911113
WJun 1 · 10:25D. Belanchik—91111113V. Kheresko—119631
WMay 31 · 18:25D. Belanchik—1111113V. Kheresko—7690
D. Belanchik10
LSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113WSep 8 · 11:55D. Belanchik2.101111113S. Kryvoshyi1.679990LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172LAug 28 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.20111311972O. Maksymkiv1.61915711113WAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.40891111113M. Dunas2.7511116552WAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113LAug 27 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.389111112133D. Belanchik1.531191310112WAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113
V. Kheresko10
LSep 8 · 12:25D. Kozoriz1.301114113V. Kheresko3.4061280LSep 7 · 11:25V. Kheresko2.2051171152S. Kryvoshyi1.61115119113WSep 7 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.2091111582V. Kheresko1.61113411113LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113
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