TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088799
Played Sep 7Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511115711119511
Serhii Kryvoshyi
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:30 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kryvoshyi to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Serhii Kryvoshyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Kryvoshyi at 58.1%
86 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 4–6 Serhii Kryvoshyi Vsevolod Kheresko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kryvoshyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-6 in 10
Kryvoshyi
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1231 vs Kryvoshyi 1243
Kryvoshyi
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 80% vs Kryvoshyi 60%
Kheresko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 60% vs Kryvoshyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +1 · Kryvoshyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kryvoshyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 2.20 / Kryvoshyi 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Kryvoshyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13088799
Kheresko2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 57 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back22% 18 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Kryvoshyi1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 66 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it94% 44 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it84% 56 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko4wins
AwayKryvoshyi6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKryvoshyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko100%3 of 3
AwayKryvoshyi85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko3Kryvoshyi7n = 10Kryvoshyi took 7 of 10
S2Kheresko5Kryvoshyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kheresko3Kryvoshyi7n = 10Kryvoshyi took 7 of 10
S4Kheresko2Kryvoshyi4n = 6Kryvoshyi took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoKryvoshyiKheresko − KryvoshyiBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.536.8−3.3per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoKryvoshyiBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 414 vs 255 / 55750.2%45.8%208 / 414 vs 255 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KryvoshyiKheresko 2.20/Kryvoshyi 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kryvoshyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kryvoshyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 15:25V. Kheresko—118811113S. Kryvoshyi—41111752
WSep 2 · 05:55V. Kheresko—1191110123S. Kryvoshyi—711612102
LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kheresko—71120S. Kryvoshyi—1113103
LAug 25 · 11:55V. Kheresko—911651S. Kryvoshyi—11911113
WAug 19 · 10:55V. Kheresko—71114113S. Kryvoshyi—1151271
LAug 18 · 13:25V. Kheresko—4119101S. Kryvoshyi—11811123
WJul 22 · 09:55V. Kheresko—1111113S. Kryvoshyi—6670
LJul 21 · 13:25V. Kheresko—13790S. Kryvoshyi—1511113
LJul 14 · 17:25V. Kheresko—4440S. Kryvoshyi—1111113
LMay 10 · 13:55V. Kheresko—4114121S. Kryvoshyi—11611143
V. Kheresko10
WSep 7 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.2091111582V. Kheresko1.61113411113LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861WSep 7 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.80101112113V. Salivonchyk1.911271071WSep 7 · 05:25O. Maksymkiv1.4410940V. Kheresko2.631211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Treschetka2.10861241V. Kheresko1.67111110113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.5011118141O. Maksymkiv1.5013711163WSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 13:25O. Sapuzhak3.50611641V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 6 · 12:25V. Salivonchyk2.00126811113V. Kheresko1.73101111472LSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192
S. Kryvoshyi10
WSep 7 · 09:55S. Kryvoshyi1.281112113V. Salivonchyk3.5061090WSep 7 · 07:55O. Maksymkiv2.101021521S. Kryvoshyi1.67121113113LSep 7 · 05:55H. Oliynyk3.40812711113S. Kryvoshyi1.30111011772WSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113LSep 6 · 18:25S. Kryvoshyi1.40881151O. Maksymkiv2.7511118113LSep 6 · 16:25O. Sapuzhak2.00111011113S. Kryvoshyi1.73812181LSep 6 · 15:25S. Kryvoshyi1.5341111752V. Kheresko2.38118811113WSep 6 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4.0011115382S. Kryvoshyi1.22591111113WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kryvoshyi1.22111173M. Treschetka4.003520LSep 2 · 10:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0051111111A. Didyk1.7311134133
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