TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094684
Played Sep 8Finished
Dmitriy Belanchik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811411117111––
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmitriy Belanchik above · Kyrylo Tkachenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 64 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Dmitriy Belanchik 6–4 Kyrylo Tkachenko Kyrylo Tkachenko has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tkachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Belanchik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Belanchik 1211 vs Tkachenko 1357
Tkachenko
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Belanchik 40% vs Tkachenko 20%
Belanchik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Belanchik 60% vs Tkachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Belanchik -1 · Tkachenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tkachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBelanchik 2.00 / Tkachenko 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Tkachenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13094684
Belanchik2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 13 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Tkachenko1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 71 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it97% 36 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it83% 55 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBelanchik6wins
AwayTkachenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBelanchik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBelanchik50%3 of 6
AwayTkachenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Belanchik6Tkachenko4n = 10Belanchik took 6 of 10
S2Belanchik6Tkachenko4n = 10Belanchik took 6 of 10
S3Belanchik8Tkachenko2n = 10Belanchik took 8 of 10
S4Belanchik2Tkachenko5n = 7Tkachenko took 5 of 7
S5Belanchik2Tkachenko3n = 5Tkachenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBelanchikTkachenkoB − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.539.6+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBelanchikTkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 236 vs 94 / 17144.5%55%105 / 236 vs 94 / 171Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkachenkoBelanchik 2.00/Tkachenko 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Tkachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 16:55D. Belanchik—1111115102K. Tkachenko—761311113
WJul 31 · 17:55D. Belanchik—1311103K. Tkachenko—11960
LJul 17 · 14:25D. Belanchik—118111392K. Tkachenko—711715113
WMar 26 · 19:25D. Belanchik—121115113K. Tkachenko—10131371
LMar 5 · 17:55D. Belanchik—111311292K. Tkachenko—315411113
WFeb 26 · 16:25D. Belanchik—1211113K. Tkachenko—10870
WJan 8 · 17:25D. Belanchik—111111113K. Tkachenko—137491
LJan 2 · 07:55D. Belanchik—8970K. Tkachenko—1111113
WJan 1 · 17:55D. Belanchik—811125143K. Tkachenko—1181011122
WDec 6 · 08:25D. Belanchik—611115113K. Tkachenko—11651182
D. Belanchik10
LSep 8 · 13:25D. Belanchik2.50107111162V. Kheresko1.50121157113WSep 8 · 11:55D. Belanchik2.101111113S. Kryvoshyi1.679990LAug 28 · 10:25M. Treschetka2.201112113D. Belanchik1.6141050WAug 28 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.44911125113O. Maslovskyi2.63115101172LAug 28 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.20111311972O. Maksymkiv1.61915711113WAug 28 · 06:55D. Belanchik1.409121111113M. Vivatenko2.7511146652WAug 28 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.40891111113M. Dunas2.7511116552WAug 27 · 18:25H. Oliynyk1.224860D. Belanchik4.001111113LAug 27 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.389111112133D. Belanchik1.531191310112WAug 27 · 15:55M. Dunas2.1061070D. Belanchik1.671112113
K. Tkachenko10
LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113LSep 8 · 12:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.4021111113K. Tkachenko2.75117781WSep 1 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.251111113V. Kheresko3.758870LSep 1 · 16:25D. Kozoriz1.911111113K. Tkachenko1.802520LSep 1 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.369111081S. Kryvoshyi3.0011512113WSep 1 · 14:25A. Didyk2.20611121092K. Tkachenko1.611161012113WSep 1 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.201211113O. Melnik4.3310440WAug 18 · 18:25K. Tkachenko2.501211113M. Styranets1.5010970WAug 18 · 16:25S. Kryvoshyi2.7516770K. Tkachenko1.401811113WAug 18 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.301111113V. Kheresko3.403470
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