TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087197
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117116611911
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 60.8%
91 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 2–1 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Niemiec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1248 vs Niemiec 1321
Niemiec
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Niemiec 20%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Niemiec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Niemiec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.83 / Niemiec 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087197
Adamus1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Niemiec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwayNiemiec1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderAdamus leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus2Niemiec1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
S2Adamus0Niemiec3n = 3Niemiec took 3 of 3
S3Adamus3Niemiec0n = 3Adamus took 3 of 3
S4Adamus1Niemiec2n = 3Niemiec took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricAdamusNiemiecA − NBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.740.0+0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1616 vs 154 / 25248.5%61.1%783 / 1616 vs 154 / 252Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.83/Niemiec 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 30 · 07:50M. Adamus—1471141R. Niemiec—16115113
WJun 23 · 13:55M. Adamus—115117113R. Niemiec—71151182
WJun 23 · 04:10M. Adamus—11611133R. Niemiec—4119111
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 11:30R. Niemiec2.25119791S. Szostok1.5531111113WSep 4 · 10:20G. Wichowski1.501351081R. Niemiec2.40111112113WSep 4 · 09:30O. Jadach1.6011841192R. Niemiec2.10911116113LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113
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