TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077246
Played Sep 5Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191181210––––
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 61 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.0%
61 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 37–46 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Adamus has won 37 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adamus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-46 in 83
Baron
Wrong
gap of 9 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1237 vs Baron 1336
Baron
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 30% vs Baron 60%
Baron
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.67 / Baron 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Adamus)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13077246
Adamus1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 224 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 211
Baron2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 483
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayBaron5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%5 of 5
AwayBaron100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Adamus3Baron6n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S5Adamus4Baron2n = 6Adamus took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusBaronA − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.544.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1620 vs 869 / 179548.3%48.4%783 / 1620 vs 869 / 1795Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.67/Baron 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 06:45M. Adamus—119116113M. Baron—61171182
LAug 13 · 06:10M. Adamus—101080M. Baron—1212113
LAug 12 · 22:00M. Adamus—531141M. Baron—11119113
WJul 23 · 13:55M. Adamus—117911113M. Baron—61111762
WJul 23 · 07:55M. Adamus—1111610113M. Baron—99111272
WJul 6 · 01:10M. Adamus—111211113M. Baron—814771
LJul 5 · 19:10M. Adamus—611119142M. Baron—118911163
LJun 25 · 01:10M. Adamus—811971M. Baron—11711113
WMay 15 · 15:55M. Adamus—11111010123M. Baron—971212102
LMay 15 · 09:55M. Adamus—10111011112M. Baron—125128133
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
Upcoming Matches
M. Adamus
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.