TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090388
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511811––––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.35
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
911511811––––
H2H Mariusz Baron 18–25 Lukasz Oracz Mariusz Baron has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 10h before this match
Baron beat Oracz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.90 / Oracz 1.35
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090388
Baron2.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 481
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Oracz1.35
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 377 of 595
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it84% 295 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron3wins
AwayOracz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron16.7%1 of 6
AwayOracz50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron6Oracz4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Baron4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Baron3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Baron4Oracz4n = 8split evenly
S5Baron1Oracz3n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronOraczB − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.943.5−3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1805 vs 816 / 147348.4%55.4%873 / 1805 vs 816 / 1473Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczBaron 2.90/Oracz 1.35
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 19:55M. Baron—1614671L. Oracz—141611113
LAug 14 · 22:35M. Baron—118141182L. Oracz—611167113
LAug 14 · 15:00M. Baron—67100L. Oracz—1111123
WAug 3 · 24:45M. Baron—1111113L. Oracz—9970
LAug 2 · 22:20M. Baron—114161162L. Oracz—811188113
WJul 26 · 15:35M. Baron—41112113L. Oracz—1191071
LJul 18 · 15:55M. Baron—511111042L. Oracz—119912113
LJul 18 · 09:55M. Baron—125881L. Oracz—101111113
WJun 25 · 06:25M. Baron—9111011113L. Oracz—11412782
LJun 25 · 02:45M. Baron—128791L. Oracz—101111113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
L. Oracz10
WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 1 · 17:05R. Niemiec2.25811891L. Oracz1.5511911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
L. Oracz
Nothing scheduled
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