TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088617
Played Sep 6Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.12
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411611811––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:44 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
411611811––––
H2H Mariusz Baron 2–9 Pawel Kurek Mariusz Baron has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Kurek
Correct
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1346 vs Kurek 1383
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Kurek 40%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 60% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron +1 · Kurek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.12 / Kurek 1.62
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kurek)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13088617
Baron2.12
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 481
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Kurek1.62
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 199 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it93% 95 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 140 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron2wins
AwayKurek8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron25%1 of 4
AwayKurek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S2Baron2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S3Baron3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Baron3Kurek4n = 7Kurek took 4 of 7
S5Baron1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronKurekB − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.040.3−8.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime870 / 1798 vs 374 / 74948.4%49.9%870 / 1798 vs 374 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekBaron 2.12/Kurek 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.2%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 18:45M. Baron—71111113P. Kurek—117951
LJul 3 · 15:00M. Baron—9570P. Kurek—1111113
LJun 16 · 23:45M. Baron—7111061P. Kurek—11812113
LJun 16 · 18:30M. Baron—12991182P. Kurek—1011117113
LJun 11 · 24:25M. Baron—51011111P. Kurek—11128133
LMay 28 · 02:00M. Baron—114312102P. Kurek—9111110123
LMay 5 · 05:35M. Baron—5270P. Kurek—1111113
WMay 3 · 08:45M. Baron—117121113P. Kurek—711101182
LApr 30 · 06:25M. Baron—8360P. Kurek—1111113
LApr 30 · 02:45M. Baron—117531P. Kurek—31111113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 4 · 14:20R. Piechnik3.5011961182P. Kurek1.28511118113
Upcoming Matches
M. Baron
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P. Kurek
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