TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075223
Played Sep 4Finished
Roman Piechnik
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115911611118811
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:08 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Piechnik above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 59.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Roman Piechnik 0–1 Pawel Kurek Roman Piechnik has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:08What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Piechnik 1260 vs Kurek 1385
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Piechnik 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Piechnik 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Piechnik -2 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPiechnik 3.50 / Kurek 1.28
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Kurek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13075223
Piechnik3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 3 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back11% 1 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Kurek1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 199 of 300
Up 2–0, closes it93% 95 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 141 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePiechnik0wins
AwayKurek1wins
Kurek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricPiechnikKurekP − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match22.035.0−13.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPiechnikKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 29 vs 373 / 74637.9%50%11 / 29 vs 373 / 746Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekPiechnik 3.50/Kurek 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 4 · 08:10R. Piechnik—31180P. Kurek—1113113
R. Piechnik10
WSep 6 · 16:20M. Lach1.6071040R. Piechnik2.151112113LSep 6 · 15:30K. Slawinski1.70911911113R. Piechnik2.0011211392WSep 6 · 14:45R. Piechnik1.501114113M. Oracz2.5091270LSep 6 · 13:10R. Piechnik2.258611101W. Wojtaszczyk1.5711115123WSep 6 · 12:20R. Wojcik1.68121111492R. Piechnik2.02149911113LSep 6 · 11:05R. Piechnik2.507116111M. Oracz1.4511911133LSep 6 · 09:30R. Piechnik2.6011811492K. Slawinski1.41511911113LSep 6 · 08:20R. Piechnik1.95714551R. Wojcik1.75111211113LSep 6 · 06:45R. Piechnik2.5510111161M. Lach1.4612913113WSep 6 · 05:30R. Piechnik—1112133W. Wojtaszczyk—410110
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
Upcoming Matches
R. Piechnik
Nothing scheduled
P. Kurek
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