TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089782
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.45
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113112118––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.45
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 67.2% is still 67.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
67.2%
67.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
46 points played in total.
Set by set
113112118––––
H2H Lukasz Oracz 15–4 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 4 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 8h before this match
Oracz beat Kurek 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-4 in 19
Oracz
Correct
gap of 11 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1473 vs Kurek 1431
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Kurek 80%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +3 · Kurek +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.45 / Kurek 2.45
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Oracz)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13089782
Oracz1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 377 of 595
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it84% 295 of 353
Kurek2.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 114 of 293
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz8wins
AwayKurek2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%5 of 5
AwayKurek40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Oracz6Kurek4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S4Oracz7Kurek1n = 8Oracz took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczKurekO − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.1+6.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime814 / 1471 vs 378 / 75355.3%50.2%814 / 1471 vs 378 / 753Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.45/Kurek 2.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz—1112511113P. Kurek—61411662
LSep 1 · 14:45L. Oracz—8118131P. Kurek—11611153
WSep 1 · 11:05L. Oracz—14911113P. Kurek—1211791
WAug 20 · 11:00L. Oracz—91111113P. Kurek—117681
WAug 20 · 04:55L. Oracz—91111113P. Kurek—119691
WAug 15 · 01:45L. Oracz—1111113P. Kurek—5770
WAug 14 · 16:15L. Oracz—11911103P. Kurek—611531
LAug 8 · 02:35L. Oracz—6650P. Kurek—1111113
WAug 7 · 18:10L. Oracz—11119113P. Kurek—391181
WAug 3 · 03:30L. Oracz—1011911113P. Kurek—12511762
L. Oracz10
WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 1 · 17:05R. Niemiec2.25811891L. Oracz1.5511911113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 4 · 14:20R. Piechnik3.5011961182P. Kurek1.28511118113
Upcoming Matches
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P. Kurek
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