TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089591
Played Sep 7Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.01
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711117311811
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
117711117311811
H2H Grzegorz Marud 13–5 Lukasz Oracz Lukasz Oracz has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Marud beat Oracz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Marud
Wrong
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1360 vs Oracz 1465
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 20% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -2 · Oracz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.01 / Oracz 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Oracz)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13089591
Marud2.01
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Oracz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 377 of 595
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it84% 295 of 353
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud8wins
AwayOracz2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud85.7%6 of 7
AwayOracz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud7Oracz3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Marud6Oracz4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S3Marud5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S4Marud6Oracz1n = 7Marud took 6 of 7
S5Marud2Oracz1n = 3Marud took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudOraczM − OBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.733.4+6.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1356 vs 813 / 147046.8%55.3%635 / 1356 vs 813 / 1470Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczMarud 2.01/Oracz 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 20:20G. Marud—10111112113L. Oracz—125131022
WAug 3 · 02:20G. Marud—1111113L. Oracz—7440
WAug 2 · 18:20G. Marud—71111113L. Oracz—118561
WJul 21 · 23:35G. Marud—115116113L. Oracz—91191162
LJul 15 · 01:10G. Marud—6890L. Oracz—1111113
WJul 6 · 03:05G. Marud—111211113L. Oracz—614781
WJul 5 · 21:05G. Marud—11115113L. Oracz—971151
WJul 5 · 04:00G. Marud—1112113L. Oracz—51070
LJul 1 · 24:25G. Marud—116101152L. Oracz—511125113
WJun 30 · 20:45G. Marud—11119113L. Oracz—881181
G. Marud10
WSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113WSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113LSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 18:20G. Marud2.25811571O. Jadach1.5411411113
L. Oracz10
WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 1 · 17:05R. Niemiec2.25811891L. Oracz1.5511911113
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud1 of 5 neutral
L. Oracz2 of 5 neutral
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