TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093680
Played Sep 8Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181210––––
Kacper Adamus
Away
1.72
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1171181210––––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 7–9 Kacper Adamus Grzegorz Marud has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (54%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1395 vs Adamus 1419
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 60% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Adamus 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud +1 · Adamus +3
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 2.00 / Adamus 1.72
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Adamus)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13093680
Marud2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 130 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 107
Adamus1.72
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 360 of 590
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it78% 287 of 367
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarud5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud71.4%5 of 7
AwayAdamus100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud7Adamus3n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Marud4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Marud6Adamus4n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Marud3Adamus6n = 9Adamus took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarudAdamusM − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.1+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime638 / 1361 vs 923 / 171046.9%54%638 / 1361 vs 923 / 1710Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusMarud 2.00/Adamus 1.72
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud—741151K. Adamus—11119113
LAug 4 · 03:05G. Marud—981191K. Adamus—11118113
LAug 3 · 21:05G. Marud—11911642K. Adamus—511611113
WJul 21 · 24:10G. Marud—1111189113K. Adamus—98201192
WJul 20 · 20:20G. Marud—11119113K. Adamus—671191
WJul 14 · 04:20G. Marud—111114113K. Adamus—981641
LJul 13 · 18:45G. Marud—119791K. Adamus—91111113
LJul 29 · 24:45G. Marud—581181K. Adamus—11117113
WJul 28 · 22:20G. Marud—1111113K. Adamus—8750
WJul 15 · 03:55G. Marud—11914113K. Adamus—4111281
G. Marud10
LSep 8 · 03:05J. Nowak2.311211153G. Marud1.50108130LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113WSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113LSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 18:20G. Marud2.25811571O. Jadach1.5411411113WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113
K. Adamus10
LSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 02:10M. Sikon2.7575130K. Adamus1.361111153WSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133WSep 7 · 23:05M. Sikon2.7599100K. Adamus1.361111123WSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171LSep 7 · 20:45O. Jadach1.8071111113K. Adamus1.85118961WSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162
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