TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090345
Played Sep 8Finished
Jakub Nowak
Home
2.31
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101181513––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:56 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
12101181513––––
H2H Jakub Nowak 34–68 Grzegorz Marud Jakub Nowak has won 34 of their 102 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Marud beat Nowak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (61%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-68 in 102
Marud
Wrong
gap of 34 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Nowak 1276 vs Marud 1401
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nowak 20% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nowak 40% vs Marud 60%
Marud
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nowak -1 · Marud -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nowak form (20%) is below what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNowak 2.31 / Marud 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Marud)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13090345
Nowak2.31
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 243 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back21% 87 of 410
Down 0–2, comes back9% 21 of 237
Marud1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
As favourite54% won 134 of 247
Up 2–0, closes it86% 81 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it69% 107 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNowak3wins
AwayMarud7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNowakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarud75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Nowak2Marud8n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S2Nowak2Marud8n = 10Marud took 8 of 10
S3Nowak4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Nowak2Marud5n = 7Marud took 5 of 7
S5Nowak3Marud0n = 3Nowak took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNowakMarudN − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.040.6−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNowakMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime670 / 1737 vs 637 / 136238.6%46.8%670 / 1737 vs 637 / 1362Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudNowak 2.31/Marud 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.6%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nowak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 23:30J. Nowak—1112671G. Marud—131011113
WAug 31 · 19:10J. Nowak—691111133G. Marud—111158112
LAug 5 · 01:45J. Nowak—91380G. Marud—1115113
LJul 28 · 24:30J. Nowak—5911101G. Marud—11119123
WJul 27 · 22:20J. Nowak—811117113G. Marud—11591192
LJul 27 · 24:45J. Nowak—5650G. Marud—1111113
LJul 26 · 22:20J. Nowak—8550G. Marud—1111113
LJul 14 · 22:00J. Nowak—7911121G. Marud—11116143
WJul 5 · 06:00J. Nowak—1181012113G. Marud—511121052
LJun 16 · 04:40J. Nowak—114831G. Marud—61111113
J. Nowak10
LSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153WSep 8 · 24:30O. Jadach2.2411990J. Nowak1.581311113LSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133LSep 7 · 22:20J. Nowak2.903660O. Jadach1.351111113LSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113LSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153LSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782WSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113
G. Marud10
LSep 8 · 01:50O. Jadach1.53811611113G. Marud2.2411711282WSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183WSep 7 · 21:05J. Nowak2.3131180G. Marud1.501113113WSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113LSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 18:20G. Marud2.25811571O. Jadach1.5411411113WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113
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