TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090245
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911911––––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.93
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
511911911––––
H2H Mariusz Baron 102–102 Grzegorz Marud Dead even across their 204 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Baron beat Marud 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Baron)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.78 / Marud 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Baron)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13090245
Baron1.78
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 219 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 158 of 226
Marud1.93
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayMarud5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron33.3%1 of 3
AwayMarud42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Baron7Marud3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Baron5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron4Marud5n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S5Baron3Marud3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronMarudB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.942.7+0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime873 / 1804 vs 636 / 135948.4%46.8%873 / 1804 vs 636 / 1359Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BaronBaron 1.78/Marud 1.93
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Baron · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron—51211113G. Marud—1110541
LAug 3 · 03:05M. Baron—111151172G. Marud—541113113
LAug 2 · 21:05M. Baron—79111192G. Marud—111179113
WJul 20 · 03:05M. Baron—411117113G. Marud—11391132
LJul 19 · 21:05M. Baron—71211852G. Marud—1110611113
WJul 13 · 03:05M. Baron—411118133G. Marud—119511112
LJul 12 · 21:05M. Baron—108110G. Marud—1211133
WJul 7 · 01:50M. Baron—711411223G. Marud—117119202
WJul 6 · 18:20M. Baron—11117113G. Marud—461191
LJun 30 · 02:30M. Baron—1261391G. Marud—101115113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
Upcoming Matches
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G. Marud
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