TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089594
Played Sep 6Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113114117116––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
1113114117116––
H2H Mariusz Baron 3–3 Mateusz Sikon Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sikon beat Baron 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Baron
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1339 vs Sikon 1361
Sikon
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Sikon 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Sikon 70%
Sikon
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Sikon -3
Sikon
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sikon) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.80 / Sikon 1.90
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sikon)+5.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13089594
Baron1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 219 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 158 of 226
Sikon1.90
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 82 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBaron3wins
AwaySikon3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron66.7%2 of 3
AwaySikon66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron3Sikon3n = 6split evenly
S2Baron2Sikon4n = 6Sikon took 4 of 6
S3Baron4Sikon2n = 6Baron took 4 of 6
S4Baron1Sikon4n = 5Sikon took 4 of 5
S5Baron2Sikon1n = 3Baron took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricBaronSikonB − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.038.5+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1801 vs 136 / 36048.4%37.8%871 / 1801 vs 136 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonBaron 1.80/Sikon 1.90
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 18 · 06:45M. Baron—11911882M. Sikon—811411113
WAug 1 · 05:10M. Baron—1111115113M. Sikon—81371132
LJul 10 · 21:20M. Baron—5650M. Sikon—1111113
WJul 10 · 15:25M. Baron—61111113M. Sikon—117741
LJul 7 · 21:20M. Baron—511981M. Sikon—11811113
WJul 7 · 15:25M. Baron—118119113M. Sikon—91171132
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113WSep 3 · 14:40P. Kurek1.50111161052M. Sikon2.50891112113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.