TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088879
Played Sep 6Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.85
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111210115114––
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
5111210115114––
H2H Mariusz Baron 101–101 Grzegorz Marud Dead even across their 202 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:49What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Marud
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
101-101 in 202
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1333 vs Marud 1384
Marud
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Marud 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 50% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Marud +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Marud)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.85 / Marud 1.85
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Marud)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13088879
Baron1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Marud1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron5wins
AwayMarud5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron66.7%2 of 3
AwayMarud57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Baron6Marud4n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S3Baron5Marud5n = 10split evenly
S4Baron4Marud5n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S5Baron3Marud2n = 5Baron took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronMarudB − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.542.9−0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime870 / 1799 vs 635 / 135448.4%46.9%870 / 1799 vs 635 / 1354Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudBaron 1.85/Marud 1.85
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 21:05M. Baron—79111192G. Marud—111179113
WJul 20 · 03:05M. Baron—411117113G. Marud—11391132
LJul 19 · 21:05M. Baron—71211852G. Marud—1110611113
WJul 13 · 03:05M. Baron—411118133G. Marud—119511112
LJul 12 · 21:05M. Baron—108110G. Marud—1211133
WJul 7 · 01:50M. Baron—711411223G. Marud—117119202
WJul 6 · 18:20M. Baron—11117113G. Marud—461191
LJun 30 · 02:30M. Baron—1261391G. Marud—101115113
WJun 29 · 21:05M. Baron—151011113G. Marud—1312851
LJun 29 · 03:05M. Baron—711691G. Marud—11511113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
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