Grzegorz Marud vs Pawel Kurek 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090423

Played Sep 7Finished

Grzegorz Marud

Home

1.85

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

711116116115––

Pawel Kurek

Away

1.85

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 1

How it is going

Point-by-point unavailable

BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.

68 points played in total.

Set by set

711116116115––

H2H Grzegorz Marud 2–5 Pawel Kurek Grzegorz Marud has won 2 of their 7 meetings.

Last 7 · 2–5Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Kurek beat Marud 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Marud form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMarud 1.85 / Kurek 1.85

Signal prob.46% / 54%

Edge (Kurek)+4.0pp

TT Elite Series · #13090423

Marud1.85

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Kurek1.85

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 7 meetings

HomeMarud2wins

AwayKurek5wins

4 of 7 to a deciderKurek leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMarud33.3%1 of 3

AwayKurek75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Marud3Kurek4n = 7Kurek took 4 of 7

S2Marud5Kurek2n = 7Marud took 5 of 7

S3Marud1Kurek6n = 7Kurek took 6 of 7

S4Marud2Kurek2n = 4split evenly

S5Marud1Kurek3n = 4Kurek took 3 of 4

How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home114%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home114%

2–3Decider, away343%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away229%

These 7 meetings

MetricMarudKurekM − KBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.041.1−5.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMarudKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime637 / 1360 vs 379 / 75646.8%50.1%637 / 1360 vs 379 / 756Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kurek

Marud 1.85/Kurek 1.85

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Kurek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Marud won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record7

LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud—81191132P. Kurek—118119113

LAug 4 · 24:20G. Marud—16128892P. Kurek—14101111113

WAug 3 · 20:20G. Marud—4111214123P. Kurek—1141412102

LAug 3 · 24:20G. Marud—11114882P. Kurek—481111113

WAug 2 · 20:20G. Marud—1111113P. Kurek—7750

LApr 28 · 20:45G. Marud—4380P. Kurek—1111113

LNov 4 · 21:45G. Marud—8510P. Kurek—1111113

G. Marud10

WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113 LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422 WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121 LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113 LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113 LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541 WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113 LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113 LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113 LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113

P. Kurek10

WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123 LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151 LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280 WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113 WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113 WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113 WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113 LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782 LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662 WSep 4 · 14:20R. Piechnik3.5011961182P. Kurek1.28511118113

Upcoming Matches

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Sep 7 · 18:20G. Marud—O. Jadach——Sep 7 · 21:05G. Marud—J. Nowak——Sep 8 · 03:05G. Marud—J. Nowak——

P. Kurek

Sep 7 · 17:30P. Kurek—M. Sikon——Sep 7 · 19:55P. Kurek—J. Nowak——Sep 8 · 01:30P. Kurek—J. Nowak——

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