TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090362
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
2.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811141211131012––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
811141211131012––
H2H Mateusz Sikon 3–11 Pawel Kurek Mateusz Sikon has won 3 of their 14 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Sikon 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) is below what odds imply (72%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 2.80 / Kurek 1.38
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kurek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13090362
Sikon2.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 82 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 101
Kurek1.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 199 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it93% 95 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 140 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon2wins
AwayKurek8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon33.3%1 of 3
AwayKurek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S2Sikon1Kurek9n = 10Kurek took 9 of 10
S3Sikon5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S4Sikon4Kurek2n = 6Sikon took 4 of 6
S5Sikon1Kurek4n = 5Kurek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonKurekS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.7−5.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 363 vs 378 / 75537.5%50.1%136 / 363 vs 378 / 755Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekSikon 2.80/Kurek 1.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.6%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon—6660P. Kurek—1111113
WSep 3 · 14:40M. Sikon—891112113P. Kurek—111161052
LSep 3 · 06:05M. Sikon—87111382P. Kurek—1111911113
LJul 31 · 12:40M. Sikon—11311862P. Kurek—311911113
LJul 31 · 06:30M. Sikon—8760P. Kurek—1111113
LJul 29 · 01:00M. Sikon—12970P. Kurek—1411113
LJul 28 · 18:55M. Sikon—9960P. Kurek—1111113
WJul 25 · 13:55M. Sikon—11811113P. Kurek—911891
LJul 25 · 04:10M. Sikon—12414872P. Kurek—10111211113
LJul 15 · 12:40M. Sikon—91141192P. Kurek—117119113
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113WSep 3 · 14:40P. Kurek1.50111161052M. Sikon2.50891112113
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662LSep 3 · 14:40P. Kurek1.50111161052M. Sikon2.50891112113
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