TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093672
Played Sep 8Finished
Kacper Adamus
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611711––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
811611711––––
H2H Kacper Adamus 8–11 Pawel Kurek Kacper Adamus has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamus beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:55What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (53%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Kurek
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1414 vs Kurek 1414
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 80% vs Kurek 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 70% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Kurek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.70 / Kurek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+1.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13093672
Adamus1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 360 of 590
Up 2–0, closes it98% 196 of 201
Up 1–0, closes it78% 287 of 367
Kurek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 115 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus4wins
AwayKurek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus57.1%4 of 7
AwayKurek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus7Kurek3n = 10Adamus took 7 of 10
S2Adamus6Kurek4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Adamus4Kurek2n = 6Adamus took 4 of 6
S5Adamus0Kurek3n = 3Kurek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusKurekA − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.934.9+2.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime924 / 1712 vs 384 / 76554%50.2%924 / 1712 vs 384 / 765Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.70/Kurek 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus—11118113P. Kurek—651171
WSep 1 · 16:20K. Adamus—1111113P. Kurek—7890
LSep 1 · 06:45K. Adamus—7860P. Kurek—1111113
LAug 25 · 14:45K. Adamus—81191132P. Kurek—118116113
WAug 25 · 11:05K. Adamus—1111113P. Kurek—7920
LAug 18 · 06:25K. Adamus—1210891P. Kurek—101211113
LAug 4 · 04:20K. Adamus—811811112P. Kurek—116112133
WAug 3 · 18:45K. Adamus—1111113P. Kurek—7850
LJul 28 · 21:45K. Adamus—11971192P. Kurek—911116113
LJul 28 · 17:45K. Adamus—126851P. Kurek—101111113
K. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 02:10M. Sikon2.7575130K. Adamus1.361111153LSep 8 · 01:10G. Marud2.001111123K. Adamus1.7278100WSep 7 · 23:50J. Nowak2.70114119112K. Adamus1.37911811133WSep 7 · 23:05M. Sikon2.7599100K. Adamus1.361111123WSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171LSep 7 · 20:45O. Jadach1.8071111113K. Adamus1.85118961WSep 7 · 19:30G. Marud2.10741151K. Adamus1.6011119113LSep 7 · 17:55J. Nowak2.401161113113K. Adamus1.5051171582WSep 5 · 08:45K. Adamus1.4711119143W. Pytlas2.458611121WSep 5 · 07:10K. Adamus1.66118115113J. Jesiek2.1081191162
P. Kurek10
WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183LSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171WSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153WSep 7 · 19:10O. Jadach1.559101491P. Kurek2.25111212113WSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123
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