TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13093682
Played Sep 8Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911118118––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.96
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 73.4% is still 73.4%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
73.4%
73.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
118911118118––
H2H Mateusz Sikon 3–13 Pawel Kurek Mateusz Sikon has won 3 of their 16 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Kurek beat Sikon 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (53%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-13 in 16
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 10 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1277 vs Kurek 1421
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 20% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 10% vs Kurek 50%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon -4 · Kurek -1
Sikon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 1.76 / Kurek 1.96
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kurek)+6.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13093682
Sikon1.76
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite50% won 52 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Kurek1.96
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 115 of 297
Down 0–1, comes back23% 39 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 98
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon2wins
AwayKurek8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon33.3%1 of 3
AwayKurek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S2Sikon1Kurek9n = 10Kurek took 9 of 10
S3Sikon4Kurek6n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S4Sikon3Kurek3n = 6split evenly
S5Sikon1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonKurekS − KBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.540.5−6.0per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 371 vs 383 / 76336.9%50.2%137 / 371 vs 383 / 763Avg sets wonper match1.62.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekSikon 1.76/Kurek 1.96
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon—1174111P. Kurek—91111133
LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon—81411101P. Kurek—111213123
LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon—6660P. Kurek—1111113
WSep 3 · 14:40M. Sikon—891112113P. Kurek—111161052
LSep 3 · 06:05M. Sikon—87111382P. Kurek—1111911113
LJul 31 · 12:40M. Sikon—11311862P. Kurek—311911113
LJul 31 · 06:30M. Sikon—8760P. Kurek—1111113
LJul 29 · 01:00M. Sikon—12970P. Kurek—1411113
LJul 28 · 18:55M. Sikon—9960P. Kurek—1111113
WJul 25 · 13:55M. Sikon—11811113P. Kurek—911891
M. Sikon10
LSep 8 · 24:10G. Marud1.5111115113M. Sikon2.28581171LSep 7 · 23:05M. Sikon2.7599100K. Adamus1.361111123LSep 7 · 21:30M. Sikon2.808390O. Jadach1.391111113LSep 7 · 20:20M. Sikon2.359850G. Marud1.541111113WSep 7 · 18:45M. Sikon1.86911711113J. Nowak1.8311811782LSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121
P. Kurek10
WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183LSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171WSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153WSep 7 · 19:10O. Jadach1.559101491P. Kurek2.25111212113WSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151
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