TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089780
Played Sep 7Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
1.42
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11310121181412––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
2.60
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Marud to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
11310121181412––
H2H Grzegorz Marud 3–6 Mateusz Sikon Grzegorz Marud has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Sikon beat Marud 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.42 (65%)
Marud
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Sikon
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1352 vs Sikon 1349
Marud
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 20% vs Sikon 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 30% vs Sikon 60%
Sikon
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -3 · Sikon -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Marud) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 1.42 / Sikon 2.60
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Marud)-3.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13089780
Marud1.42
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 137 of 250
Up 2–0, closes it86% 82 of 95
Up 1–0, closes it69% 109 of 158
Sikon2.60
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 82 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back14% 22 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 101
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarud3wins
AwaySikon6wins
3 of 9 to a deciderSikon leads 6–3, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarud75%3 of 4
AwaySikon100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud4Sikon5n = 9Sikon took 5 of 9
S2Marud6Sikon3n = 9Marud took 6 of 9
S3Marud3Sikon6n = 9Sikon took 6 of 9
S4Marud5Sikon4n = 9Marud took 5 of 9
S5Marud0Sikon3n = 3Sikon took 3 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarudSikonM − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match41.438.8+2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime635 / 1357 vs 136 / 36146.8%37.7%635 / 1357 vs 136 / 361Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarudMarud 1.42/Sikon 2.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Marud · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud—710111162M. Sikon—111265113
LSep 1 · 24:50G. Marud—111191182M. Sikon—841113113
LAug 31 · 17:30G. Marud—811971M. Sikon—11611113
LAug 4 · 21:45G. Marud—811511102M. Sikon—111118123
WAug 4 · 17:45G. Marud—11118113M. Sikon—581181
WJul 28 · 03:30G. Marud—11118113M. Sikon—741131
WJul 27 · 21:30G. Marud—111312113M. Sikon—5151011
LJul 13 · 23:50G. Marud—8913121M. Sikon—111111143
LJul 13 · 17:55G. Marud—811441M. Sikon—11711113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113WSep 3 · 14:40P. Kurek1.50111161052M. Sikon2.50891112113
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