TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065202
Played Sep 3Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181196111012511
Mateusz Sikon
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:32 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 94 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 67.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 10–2 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1387 vs Sikon 1375
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Sikon 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Sikon 90%
Sikon
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Sikon +4
Sikon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.50 / Sikon 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kurek)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13065202
Kurek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 194 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it85% 139 of 164
Sikon2.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 79 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back13% 20 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek8wins
AwaySikon2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%6 of 6
AwaySikon50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek6Sikon4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S2Kurek9Sikon1n = 10Kurek took 9 of 10
S3Kurek5Sikon5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurek2Sikon4n = 6Sikon took 4 of 6
S5Kurek4Sikon0n = 4Kurek took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekSikonK − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.034.6+6.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime367 / 735 vs 133 / 35449.9%37.6%367 / 735 vs 133 / 354Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.50/Sikon 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:05P. Kurek—1111911113M. Sikon—87111382
WJul 31 · 12:40P. Kurek—311911113M. Sikon—11311862
WJul 31 · 06:30P. Kurek—1111113M. Sikon—8760
WJul 29 · 01:00P. Kurek—1411113M. Sikon—12970
WJul 28 · 18:55P. Kurek—1111113M. Sikon—9960
LJul 25 · 13:55P. Kurek—911891M. Sikon—11811113
WJul 25 · 04:10P. Kurek—10111211113M. Sikon—12414872
WJul 15 · 12:40P. Kurek—117119113M. Sikon—91141192
LJul 15 · 06:30P. Kurek—911971M. Sikon—11511113
WJul 1 · 01:00P. Kurek—1111113M. Sikon—8740
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
M. Sikon10
LSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081LSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660LSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113LSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113WSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113
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