TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089778
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1158111311115––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:40 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
1158111311115––
H2H Mariusz Baron 2–13 Pawel Kurek Mariusz Baron has won 2 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Baron 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Kurek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-13 in 15
Kurek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1343 vs Kurek 1419
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 40% vs Kurek 80%
Kurek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 30% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 1.90 / Kurek 1.75
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kurek)+4.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13089778
Baron1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 481
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Kurek1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 199 of 301
Up 2–0, closes it93% 95 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 140 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron1wins
AwayKurek9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaronn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKurek87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S2Baron3Kurek7n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S3Baron2Kurek8n = 10Kurek took 8 of 10
S4Baron3Kurek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronKurekB − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.139.2−7.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime872 / 1803 vs 378 / 75448.4%50.1%872 / 1803 vs 378 / 754Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekBaron 1.90/Kurek 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron—4680P. Kurek—1111113
LAug 14 · 23:20M. Baron—711781P. Kurek—11511113
LAug 14 · 17:20M. Baron—8980P. Kurek—1111113
LAug 3 · 04:20M. Baron—91050P. Kurek—1112113
WAug 2 · 18:45M. Baron—71111113P. Kurek—117951
LJul 3 · 15:00M. Baron—9570P. Kurek—1111113
LJun 16 · 23:45M. Baron—7111061P. Kurek—11812113
LJun 16 · 18:30M. Baron—12991182P. Kurek—1011117113
LJun 11 · 24:25M. Baron—51011111P. Kurek—11128133
LMay 28 · 02:00M. Baron—114312102P. Kurek—9111110123
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 4 · 14:20R. Piechnik3.5011961182P. Kurek1.28511118113
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