TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13089588
Played Sep 7Finished
Oskar Jadach
Home
1.92
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111191113116115
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeOskar Jadach to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
7111191113116115
H2H Oskar Jadach 65–37 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 37 of their 102 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Jadach beat Baron 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:44What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (52%)
Baron
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
65-37 in 102
Jadach
Correct
gap of 28 in 102, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jadach 1460 vs Baron 1339
Jadach
Correct
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadach 80% vs Baron 40%
Jadach
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadach 70% vs Baron 40%
Jadach
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadach +1 · Baron -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jadach) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadach 1.92 / Baron 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jadach)+5.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13089588
Jadach1.92
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 103 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Baron1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 219 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it83% 105 of 126
Up 1–0, closes it70% 158 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJadach8wins
AwayBaron2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJadach leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJadach100%7 of 7
AwayBaron66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jadach7Baron3n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S2Jadach3Baron7n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S3Jadach7Baron3n = 10Jadach took 7 of 10
S4Jadach4Baron1n = 5Jadach took 4 of 5
S5Jadach3Baron0n = 3Jadach took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJadachBaronJ − BBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.334.7+0.6per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadachBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1314 vs 871 / 180160.5%48.4%795 / 1314 vs 871 / 1801Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JadachJadach 1.92/Baron 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jadach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jadach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 11:30O. Jadach—1111113M. Baron—7860
WAug 31 · 07:10O. Jadach—1112113M. Baron—81080
WAug 4 · 13:55O. Jadach—1111113M. Baron—9580
WAug 4 · 07:55O. Jadach—1041211113M. Baron—121110792
WMay 15 · 13:30O. Jadach—134012113M. Baron—1111111082
WMay 15 · 07:30O. Jadach—121013113M. Baron—10121141
WMar 31 · 03:05O. Jadach—14211113M. Baron—1211761
LMar 30 · 21:05O. Jadach—3390M. Baron—1111113
WMar 30 · 03:05O. Jadach—1171111113M. Baron—71131352
LMar 29 · 21:05O. Jadach—5460M. Baron—1111113
O. Jadach10
WSep 7 · 05:05O. Jadach1.441171413113M. Sikon2.62611161172LSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422LSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113LSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670WSep 6 · 20:45O. Jadach1.501111113M. Sikon2.408580WSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782WSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113WSep 4 · 16:20G. Wichowski1.8611711362O. Jadach1.83411511113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
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