TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088525
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.47
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12101210511811811
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.45
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:14 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
12101210511811811
H2H Lukasz Oracz 25–18 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Baron has won 18 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-18 in 43
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 7 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1484 vs Baron 1325
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 80% vs Baron 40%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 80% vs Baron 50%
Oracz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +3 · Baron -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.47 / Baron 2.45
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Oracz)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13088525
Oracz1.47
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 377 of 595
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it84% 295 of 353
Baron2.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 481
Down 0–1, comes back25% 65 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayBaron3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz50%2 of 4
AwayBaron16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S2Oracz6Baron4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz7Baron3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Oracz4Baron4n = 8split evenly
S5Oracz3Baron1n = 4Oracz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczBaronO − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.539.9+3.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime811 / 1466 vs 869 / 179655.3%48.4%811 / 1466 vs 869 / 1796Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.47/Baron 2.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 19:55L. Oracz—141611113M. Baron—1614671
WAug 14 · 22:35L. Oracz—611167113M. Baron—118141182
WAug 14 · 15:00L. Oracz—1111123M. Baron—67100
LAug 3 · 24:45L. Oracz—9970M. Baron—1111113
WAug 2 · 22:20L. Oracz—811188113M. Baron—114161162
LJul 26 · 15:35L. Oracz—1191071M. Baron—41112113
WJul 18 · 15:55L. Oracz—119912113M. Baron—511111042
WJul 18 · 09:55L. Oracz—101111113M. Baron—125881
LJun 25 · 06:25L. Oracz—11412782M. Baron—9111011113
WJun 25 · 02:45L. Oracz—101111113M. Baron—128791
L. Oracz10
WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 1 · 17:05R. Niemiec2.25811891L. Oracz1.5511911113
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
Upcoming Matches
L. Oracz
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
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