TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088885
Played Sep 6Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.70
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121051113111012211
Grzegorz Marud
Away
1.99
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
121051113111012211
H2H Lukasz Oracz 5–12 Grzegorz Marud Lukasz Oracz has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Marud
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1452 vs Marud 1370
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 81 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Marud 20%
Oracz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 70% vs Marud 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Marud -4
Marud
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.70 / Marud 1.99
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Oracz)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13088885
Oracz1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 377 of 595
Up 2–0, closes it97% 200 of 206
Up 1–0, closes it84% 295 of 353
Marud1.99
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 173
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz2wins
AwayMarud8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMarud leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz33.3%1 of 3
AwayMarud85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Marud7n = 10Marud took 7 of 10
S2Oracz4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S3Oracz4Marud6n = 10Marud took 6 of 10
S4Oracz1Marud6n = 7Marud took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczMarudO − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.638.4−5.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczMarudBasisWin rate · lifetime811 / 1467 vs 634 / 135355.3%46.9%811 / 1467 vs 634 / 1353Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.70/Marud 1.99
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Marud won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 02:20L. Oracz—7440G. Marud—1111113
LAug 2 · 18:20L. Oracz—118561G. Marud—71111113
LJul 21 · 23:35L. Oracz—91191162G. Marud—115116113
WJul 15 · 01:10L. Oracz—1111113G. Marud—6890
LJul 6 · 03:05L. Oracz—614781G. Marud—111211113
LJul 5 · 21:05L. Oracz—971151G. Marud—11115113
LJul 5 · 04:00L. Oracz—51070G. Marud—1112113
WJul 1 · 24:25L. Oracz—511125113G. Marud—116101152
LJun 30 · 20:45L. Oracz—881181G. Marud—11119113
LJun 24 · 01:10L. Oracz—1167101G. Marud—81111123
L. Oracz10
WSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113WSep 7 · 03:30O. Jadach1.95116128112L. Oracz1.777111011133WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz1.7561112113M. Sikon1.981171081WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz1.411111113M. Sikon2.605660WSep 6 · 21:30L. Oracz1.751111113O. Jadach1.926670LSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662WSep 1 · 17:05R. Niemiec2.25811891L. Oracz1.5511911113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113LSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
Upcoming Matches
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G. Marud
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