TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058418
Played Sep 2Finished
Grzegorz Marud
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4119111191210811
Michal Durda
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:53 and never touched — 81.1% is still 81.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
81.1%
81.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Marud above · Michal Durda below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Michal Durda at 81.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Marud 0–4 Michal Durda Grzegorz Marud has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Durda
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marud 1397 vs Durda 1607
Durda
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marud 80% vs Durda 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marud 60% vs Durda 90%
Durda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marud -1 · Durda +4
Durda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Durda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marud form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarud 4.33 / Durda 1.20
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Durda)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13058418
Marud4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 131 of 314
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 171
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 108
Durda1.20
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMarud0wins
AwayDurda4wins
Durda leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarudn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayDurda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marud0Durda4n = 4Durda took 4 of 4
S2Marud0Durda4n = 4Durda took 4 of 4
S3Marud2Durda2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricMarudDurdaM − DBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match25.037.8−12.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarudDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1363 vs 187 / 23947%78.2%641 / 1363 vs 187 / 239Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaMarud 4.33/Durda 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 28 · 01:50G. Marud—791241M. Durda—111110113
LJul 27 · 18:20G. Marud—71010M. Durda—1112113
LJul 27 · 02:20G. Marud—451191M. Durda—11118113
LJul 26 · 18:20G. Marud—8580M. Durda—1111113
G. Marud10
WSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113LSep 7 · 02:20O. Jadach1.42117611113G. Marud2.6051111422WSep 7 · 01:30G. Marud1.42111011143M. Sikon2.603128121LSep 7 · 24:20G. Marud2.0111711382L. Oracz1.73711711113LSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113LSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541WSep 6 · 20:20L. Oracz1.70125131022G. Marud1.9910111112113LSep 6 · 19:30G. Marud1.38710111162M. Sikon2.75111265113LSep 6 · 18:20G. Marud3.00411731O. Jadach1.3211711113
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113LSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda1.061317113I. Szymanski8.00111570WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 16:15M. Durda1.20111111113G. Marud4.33313691WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
Upcoming Matches
G. Marud
M. Durda
Nothing scheduled
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