TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13057811
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.06
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111715117––––
Igor Szymanski
Away
8.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched — 71.7% is still 71.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
71.7%
71.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Durda above · Igor Szymanski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 17-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 74 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Michal Durda at 71.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Michal Durda 10–1 Igor Szymanski Igor Szymanski has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.06 (88%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Durda
Correct
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1605 vs Szymanski 1191
Durda
Correct
both rated, 414 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 80% vs Szymanski 20%
Durda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 80% vs Szymanski 20%
Durda
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +4 · Szymanski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 91% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (80%) is below what odds imply (94%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.06 / Szymanski 8.00
Signal prob.91% / 9%
Edge (Durda)+2.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13057811
Durda1.06
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Szymanski8.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 73 of 328
Down 0–1, comes back11% 25 of 222
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 156
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDurda9wins
AwaySzymanski1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDurda leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda85.7%6 of 7
AwaySzymanski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda7Szymanski3n = 10Durda took 7 of 10
S2Durda7Szymanski3n = 10Durda took 7 of 10
S3Durda9Szymanski1n = 10Durda took 9 of 10
S4Durda5Szymanski1n = 6Durda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDurdaSzymanskiD − SBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.229.2+11.0per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 234 vs 82 / 35578.2%23.1%183 / 234 vs 82 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.61.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.133.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.06/Szymanski 8.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
91%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda—1317113I. Szymanski—111570
WAug 6 · 15:55M. Durda—12118113I. Szymanski—1091171
WAug 6 · 09:55M. Durda—1211113I. Szymanski—10270
WJul 24 · 10:35M. Durda—581111113I. Szymanski—11119582
WJul 24 · 03:00M. Durda—1111113I. Szymanski—8350
WJul 16 · 14:40M. Durda—91111113I. Szymanski—113531
WJul 16 · 06:05M. Durda—121111113I. Szymanski—145921
WJul 3 · 22:55M. Durda—111011113I. Szymanski—512851
WJul 3 · 16:55M. Durda—1111113I. Szymanski—6960
LJun 28 · 13:30M. Durda—11611782I. Szymanski—711011113
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113LSep 1 · 20:30M. Durda1.146149101K. Schaniel5.00111211123WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 16:15M. Durda1.20111111113G. Marud4.33313691WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
I. Szymanski10
LSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113LSep 3 · 12:40I. Szymanski3.407890O. Vincenec1.301111113WSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:10P. Kurek1.28681111123I. Szymanski3.50111167102LSep 3 · 09:25I. Szymanski3.0081111962M. Sikon1.36118911113LSep 3 · 08:10O. Vincenec1.2871111113I. Szymanski3.50119881LSep 3 · 07:20M. Sikon1.4411119113I. Szymanski2.63541131WSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:30P. Kurek1.301114113I. Szymanski3.4021260LSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143
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