TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058214
Played Sep 1Finished
Michal Durda
Home
1.14
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61114129111012––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
5.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Durda above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 85 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Michal Durda at 64.4%
85 points played in total.
H2H Michal Durda 5–1 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:55What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Durda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Durda
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Durda 1605 vs Schaniel 1398
Durda
Wrong
both rated, 207 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Durda 100% vs Schaniel 80%
Durda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Durda 80% vs Schaniel 60%
Durda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Durda +5 · Schaniel +2
Durda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (20%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDurda 1.14 / Schaniel 5.00
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Durda)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13058214
Durda1.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite78% won 171 of 220
Up 2–0, closes it98% 84 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it92% 119 of 129
Schaniel5.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 186 of 458
Down 0–1, comes back27% 68 of 250
Down 0–2, comes back10% 13 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDurda5wins
AwaySchaniel1wins
Durda leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDurda100%3 of 3
AwaySchaniel33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Durda3Schaniel3n = 6split evenly
S2Durda5Schaniel1n = 6Durda took 5 of 6
S3Durda4Schaniel2n = 6Durda took 4 of 6
S4Durda3Schaniel0n = 3Durda took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDurdaSchanielD − SBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.233.5+4.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDurdaSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 234 vs 875 / 174078.2%50.3%183 / 234 vs 875 / 1740Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaDurda 1.14/Schaniel 5.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
85.8%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 6 · 11:30M. Durda—111110113K. Schaniel—981281
WAug 6 · 07:10M. Durda—81111113K. Schaniel—118991
LJul 27 · 24:20M. Durda—81590K. Schaniel—1117113
WJul 26 · 20:20M. Durda—1214113K. Schaniel—101280
WJul 23 · 09:00M. Durda—91112113K. Schaniel—1151091
WJul 23 · 04:30M. Durda—1111113K. Schaniel—8690
M. Durda10
WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113WSep 1 · 18:55M. Durda1.061317113I. Szymanski8.00111570WSep 1 · 17:45M. Durda1.911112113O. Jadach1.8091080WSep 1 · 16:15M. Durda1.20111111113G. Marud4.33313691WSep 1 · 15:00M. Durda1.57511911113S. Szostok2.2511911642WAug 24 · 16:40W. Buczynski5.9071112101M. Durda1.0911614123
K. Schaniel10
LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113LSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100
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