TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087176
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1311116711811116
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 95 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 37–34 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Schaniel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-34 in 71
Adamus
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1239 vs Schaniel 1345
Schaniel
Wrong
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 60% vs Schaniel 80%
Schaniel
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 30% vs Schaniel 70%
Schaniel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Schaniel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Schaniel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.83 / Schaniel 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Schaniel)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087176
Adamus1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Schaniel1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwaySchaniel5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus50%2 of 4
AwaySchaniel50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Adamus6Schaniel4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus6Schaniel4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Adamus5Schaniel5n = 10split evenly
S5Adamus3Schaniel4n = 7Schaniel took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSchanielA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.046.2−2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1617 vs 876 / 174548.4%50.2%783 / 1617 vs 876 / 1745Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SchanielAdamus 1.83/Schaniel 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Schaniel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 23:55M. Adamus—111231172K. Schaniel—9101113113
LJul 31 · 17:55M. Adamus—1111119112K. Schaniel—137811133
LJul 16 · 17:05M. Adamus—1071281K. Schaniel—121110113
WJul 16 · 08:45M. Adamus—912714113K. Schaniel—1110111292
WJun 2 · 22:00M. Adamus—181111113K. Schaniel—11116942
WMay 20 · 05:35M. Adamus—12911113K. Schaniel—1011981
LMay 7 · 02:00M. Adamus—11126772K. Schaniel—5101111113
LMar 24 · 23:00M. Adamus—51151142K. Schaniel—118117113
WMar 24 · 19:00M. Adamus—61111123K. Schaniel—1177101
WFeb 20 · 16:55M. Adamus—136118113K. Schaniel—111181182
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
K. Schaniel10
WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 03:25K. Schaniel1.7310911131P. Przewlocki2.0012116153WSep 7 · 02:00S. Krupa1.8371190K. Schaniel1.871113113WSep 7 · 01:10P. Adamus1.55101161152K. Schaniel2.25124118113WSep 7 · 24:25K. Schaniel1.27111110113R. Ogon3.20391241WSep 6 · 22:50K. Schaniel2.501111113J. Pruszkowski1.443980WSep 6 · 22:00J. Nowak2.60321141K. Schaniel1.4211117113WSep 5 · 01:45K. Schaniel1.611111113G. Sawicki2.205670LSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680WSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652
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