TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076561
Played Sep 4Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
81171113111191113
Mariusz Baron
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Baron to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 105 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Mariusz Baron at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 37–46 Mariusz Baron Mariusz Adamus has won 37 of their 83 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-46 in 83
Baron
Correct
gap of 9 in 83, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1316 vs Baron 1296
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Baron 20%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 50% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -1 · Baron -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Baron form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.80 / Baron 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13076561
Adamus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 224 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 211
Baron1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 483
Down 0–1, comes back25% 66 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwayBaron5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%5 of 5
AwayBaron100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus5Baron5n = 10split evenly
S3Adamus4Baron6n = 10Baron took 6 of 10
S4Adamus3Baron6n = 9Baron took 6 of 9
S5Adamus4Baron2n = 6Adamus took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusBaronA − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.544.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1613 vs 864 / 178848.4%48.3%781 / 1613 vs 864 / 1788Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.80/Baron 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 06:45M. Adamus—119116113M. Baron—61171182
LAug 13 · 06:10M. Adamus—101080M. Baron—1212113
LAug 12 · 22:00M. Adamus—531141M. Baron—11119113
WJul 23 · 13:55M. Adamus—117911113M. Baron—61111762
WJul 23 · 07:55M. Adamus—1111610113M. Baron—99111272
WJul 6 · 01:10M. Adamus—111211113M. Baron—814771
LJul 5 · 19:10M. Adamus—611119142M. Baron—118911163
LJun 25 · 01:10M. Adamus—811971M. Baron—11711113
WMay 15 · 15:55M. Adamus—11111010123M. Baron—971212102
LMay 15 · 09:55M. Adamus—10111011112M. Baron—125128133
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
Upcoming Matches
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