TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077195
Played Sep 5Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411119811811––
Grzegorz Sawicki
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Grzegorz Sawicki below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 59.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 16–19 Grzegorz Sawicki Mariusz Adamus has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:04What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-19 in 35
Sawicki
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1262 vs Sawicki 1221
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Sawicki 80%
Sawicki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Sawicki 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +2 · Sawicki +3
Sawicki
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sawicki form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.57 / Sawicki 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Adamus)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13077195
Adamus1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 224 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 211
Sawicki2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 118 of 373
Down 0–1, comes back18% 46 of 251
Down 0–2, comes back8% 12 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus5wins
AwaySawicki5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus50%3 of 6
AwaySawicki50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus6Sawicki4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S2Adamus6Sawicki4n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S3Adamus5Sawicki5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus4Sawicki3n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Adamus1Sawicki3n = 4Sawicki took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusSawickiA − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.537.9+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusSawickiBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1619 vs 354 / 88348.4%40.1%783 / 1619 vs 354 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.57/Sawicki 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sawicki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 04:00M. Adamus—11119792G. Sawicki—881111113
WJul 13 · 02:00M. Adamus—111111113G. Sawicki—661331
WJul 12 · 16:25M. Adamus—1111113G. Sawicki—8970
LJul 6 · 02:00M. Adamus—9101111122G. Sawicki—111285143
WJul 5 · 16:25M. Adamus—1011118123G. Sawicki—125611102
LJun 14 · 22:00M. Adamus—11961182G. Sawicki—911115113
LJun 8 · 02:00M. Adamus—127681G. Sawicki—101111113
WJun 7 · 16:25M. Adamus—1114113G. Sawicki—61250
WMay 18 · 02:00M. Adamus—91111113G. Sawicki—116891
LMay 17 · 16:25M. Adamus—811110G. Sawicki—1113133
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 21:00M. Adamus1.801111751P. Gumulinski1.9171311113LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
G. Sawicki10
LSep 6 · 20:00G. Sawicki4.508960K. Juszczyk1.151111113LSep 6 · 18:45G. Sawicki1.605119131R. Ogon2.1011411153LSep 6 · 17:35G. Sawicki2.60531361S. Krupa1.41111111113WSep 6 · 16:25R. Adach1.85131111792G. Sawicki1.851113611113WSep 6 · 15:35G. Sawicki2.001111125133W. Jozala1.71781411112LSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113LSep 6 · 06:45G. Sawicki2.75116471K. Juszczyk1.3781111113WSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861WSep 6 · 04:25W. Pytlas1.30481191G. Sawicki3.1011119113WSep 6 · 03:35G. Sawicki2.5011614133P. Slosarczyk1.4441112111
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