TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076557
Played Sep 4Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171113711511––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 76 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 55.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 23–40 Piotr Gumulinski Mariusz Adamus has won 23 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-40 in 63
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 17 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1257 vs Gumulinski 1386
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 20% vs Gumulinski 60%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 30% vs Gumulinski 50%
Gumulinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus -4 · Gumulinski +1
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.80 / Gumulinski 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13076557
Adamus1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 224 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 84 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 211
Gumulinski1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 141 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back41% 60 of 145
Down 0–2, comes back19% 13 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwayGumulinski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus20%1 of 5
AwayGumulinski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamus3Gumulinski7n = 10Gumulinski took 7 of 10
S3Adamus2Gumulinski8n = 10Gumulinski took 8 of 10
S4Adamus3Gumulinski5n = 8Gumulinski took 5 of 8
S5Adamus2Gumulinski1n = 3Adamus took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusGumulinskiA − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.240.1−3.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime781 / 1616 vs 1011 / 180148.3%56.1%781 / 1616 vs 1011 / 1801Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.80/Gumulinski 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 23:10M. Adamus—153951P. Gumulinski—131111113
WAug 17 · 18:20M. Adamus—81111113P. Gumulinski—115981
WJul 23 · 12:45M. Adamus—111195113P. Gumulinski—86111152
LJul 23 · 10:20M. Adamus—115121172P. Gumulinski—311146113
LJun 9 · 01:55M. Adamus—11570P. Gumulinski—1311113
LJun 8 · 19:55M. Adamus—971161P. Gumulinski—11119113
LMay 28 · 03:35M. Adamus—117381P. Gumulinski—61111113
LMay 25 · 02:00M. Adamus—56120P. Gumulinski—1111143
WMay 24 · 16:25M. Adamus—911711113P. Gumulinski—11411782
LMay 13 · 22:00M. Adamus—129991P. Gumulinski—101111113
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680LSep 4 · 19:40K. Schaniel1.83117811113M. Adamus1.8381111652LSep 4 · 18:55O. Sokolowski1.7311711123M. Adamus2.008119101LSep 4 · 18:10M. Adamus1.80871311112M. Baron1.911111119133
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
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