TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082220
Played Sep 6Finished
Piotr Gumulinski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116117811119––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:08 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 60.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Gumulinski 20–9 Oliver Vincenec Oliver Vincenec has won 9 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:08What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-9 in 29
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 11 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gumulinski 1534 vs Vincenec 1371
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gumulinski 80% vs Vincenec 40%
Gumulinski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gumulinski 70% vs Vincenec 50%
Gumulinski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gumulinski +1 · Vincenec -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGumulinski 1.57 / Vincenec 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Gumulinski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082220
Gumulinski1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 345 of 573
Up 2–0, closes it93% 158 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it76% 235 of 311
Vincenec2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 191 of 484
Down 0–1, comes back25% 71 of 290
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGumulinski7wins
AwayVincenec3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGumulinski80%4 of 5
AwayVincenec40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gumulinski5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S2Gumulinski8Vincenec2n = 10Gumulinski took 8 of 10
S3Gumulinski3Vincenec7n = 10Vincenec took 7 of 10
S4Gumulinski5Vincenec1n = 6Gumulinski took 5 of 6
S5Gumulinski2Vincenec1n = 3Gumulinski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGumulinskiVincenecG − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.935.3+4.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGumulinskiVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime1024 / 1816 vs 645 / 142956.4%45.1%1024 / 1816 vs 645 / 1429Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGumulinski 1.57/Vincenec 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski—1011511113O. Vincenec—12511862
WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski—11118113O. Vincenec—671191
LAug 17 · 02:20P. Gumulinski—9890O. Vincenec—1111113
WAug 16 · 18:20P. Gumulinski—1211811113O. Vincenec—14411782
LAug 12 · 15:55P. Gumulinski—11119882O. Vincenec—461111113
LAug 12 · 09:55P. Gumulinski—109110O. Vincenec—1211133
WAug 5 · 07:10P. Gumulinski—1112113O. Vincenec—31080
WJun 19 · 05:35P. Gumulinski—11118113O. Vincenec—981181
WMay 15 · 01:10P. Gumulinski—81411113O. Vincenec—1112991
WApr 9 · 05:35P. Gumulinski—1111133O. Vincenec—58110
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940WSep 5 · 02:10A. Szurgot5.5010711101P. Gumulinski1.1312113123
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970LSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172
Upcoming Matches
P. Gumulinski
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
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