TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082448
Played Sep 6Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11910121113118118
Jakub Jesiek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Jesiek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Jakub Jesiek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jakub Jesiek at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 4–4 Jakub Jesiek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jesiek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1337 vs Jesiek 1367
Jesiek
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 40% vs Jesiek 60%
Jesiek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 40% vs Jesiek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +2 · Jesiek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jesiek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vincenec form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.83 / Jesiek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jesiek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13082448
Vincenec1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Jesiek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVincenec4wins
AwayJesiek4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVincenec50%2 of 4
AwayJesiek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec4Jesiek4n = 8split evenly
S2Vincenec3Jesiek5n = 8Jesiek took 5 of 8
S3Vincenec4Jesiek4n = 8split evenly
S4Vincenec3Jesiek3n = 6split evenly
S5Vincenec3Jesiek2n = 5Vincenec took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricVincenecJesiekV − JBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.642.9−2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecJesiekBasisWin rate · lifetime644 / 1427 vs 273 / 52145.1%52.4%644 / 1427 vs 273 / 521Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JesiekVincenec 1.83/Jesiek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jesiek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec—1111113J. Jesiek—5670
LAug 18 · 03:10O. Vincenec—39110J. Jesiek—1111133
LAug 11 · 09:50O. Vincenec—11371592J. Jesiek—9111113113
WJun 1 · 24:00O. Vincenec—611119123J. Jesiek—119511102
LApr 11 · 11:30O. Vincenec—12114152J. Jesiek—1071111113
LApr 11 · 07:10O. Vincenec—8611111J. Jesiek—11117133
WFeb 8 · 21:00O. Vincenec—1191111113J. Jesiek—81113772
WDec 14 · 18:10O. Vincenec—5121111143J. Jesiek—111477122
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970LSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481WSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172
J. Jesiek10
WSep 6 · 14:20P. Jedrzejak1.444460J. Jesiek2.631111113LSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581WSep 6 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.4089100J. Jesiek2.751111123LSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 08:10P. Jedrzejak1.5311881172J. Jesiek2.38511119113LSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670WSep 6 · 05:15Z. Sobkow1.4481190J. Jesiek2.631113113LSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281WSep 6 · 03:00J. Wieczerzak1.36117131192J. Jesiek3.00811155113LSep 5 · 16:40J. Jesiek1.7611690W. Buczynski1.901311113
Upcoming Matches
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
J. Jesiek
Nothing scheduled
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