TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065175
Played Sep 3Finished
Oliver Vincenec
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711118114911117
Kamil Kowalski
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:31 and never touched — 73.7% is still 73.7%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
73.7%
73.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOliver Vincenec above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 90 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 73.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Oliver Vincenec 3–1 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:31What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Vincenec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Vincenec
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vincenec 1351 vs Kowalski 997
Vincenec
Correct
both rated, 353 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vincenec 60% vs Kowalski 0%
Vincenec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vincenec 60% vs Kowalski 10%
Vincenec
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vincenec +1 · Kowalski -5
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Vincenec) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVincenec 1.28 / Kowalski 3.50
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Vincenec)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065175
Vincenec1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 142 of 260
Up 2–0, closes it87% 62 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it75% 102 of 137
Kowalski3.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVincenec3wins
AwayKowalski1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderVincenec leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vincenec2Kowalski2n = 4split evenly
S2Vincenec2Kowalski2n = 4split evenly
S3Vincenec4Kowalski0n = 4Vincenec took 4 of 4
S4Vincenec1Kowalski2n = 3Kowalski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricVincenecKowalskiV − KBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.036.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVincenecKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime640 / 1418 vs 17 / 11945.1%14.3%640 / 1418 vs 17 / 119Avg sets wonper match1.91.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.232.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecVincenec 1.28/Kowalski 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Vincenec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 3 · 06:30O. Vincenec—1211123K. Kowalski—107100
WAug 11 · 14:20O. Vincenec—1012116113K. Kowalski—121061192
LAug 6 · 11:25O. Vincenec—6101181K. Kowalski—11124113
WAug 6 · 05:15O. Vincenec—121011113K. Kowalski—1012721
O. Vincenec10
LSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:30O. Vincenec1.8311101111113J. Jesiek1.8391213882WSep 6 · 12:15J. Wieczerzak1.2891211442O. Vincenec3.501110911113WSep 6 · 11:00P. Jedrzejak1.401014611112O. Vincenec2.751212119133LSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 08:35J. Wieczerzak1.401111113O. Vincenec2.757660WSep 6 · 07:20O. Vincenec1.831111113J. Jesiek1.835670LSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191LSep 6 · 04:55P. Jedrzejak1.441111113O. Vincenec2.634970LSep 6 · 03:25Z. Sobkow1.6111711113O. Vincenec2.20411481
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 09:00P. Kurek1.101111911113K. Kowalski6.5091311762LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Vincenec1 of 1 neutral
K. Kowalski
Nothing scheduled
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