TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065130
Played Sep 3Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191113911117116
Kamil Kowalski
Away
6.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 88.3% is still 88.3%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
88.3%
88.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Kamil Kowalski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 99 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 88.3%
99 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 5–0 Kamil Kowalski Kamil Kowalski has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-0 in 5
Kurek
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1377 vs Kowalski 1022
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 356 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Kowalski 0%
Kurek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Kowalski 10%
Kurek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Kowalski -5
Kowalski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 88% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalski form (0%) is below what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.10 / Kowalski 6.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Kurek)+3.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13065130
Kurek1.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 194 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it94% 95 of 101
Up 1–0, closes it85% 139 of 164
Kowalski6.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog16% won 17 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back4% 3 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKurek5wins
AwayKowalski0wins
Kurek leads 5–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKowalski0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek2Kowalski3n = 5Kowalski took 3 of 5
S2Kurek5Kowalski0n = 5Kurek took 5 of 5
S3Kurek5Kowalski0n = 5Kurek took 5 of 5
S4Kurek3Kowalski0n = 3Kurek took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home360%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKurekKowalskiKurek − KowalskiBasisWins50+5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match38.029.8+8.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekKowalskiBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 732 vs 17 / 11549.9%14.8%365 / 732 vs 17 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.01.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.432.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.10/Kowalski 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
89.3%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 3 · 07:45P. Kurek—81111113K. Kowalski—116761
WAug 12 · 09:00P. Kurek—71112113K. Kowalski—1151091
WAug 12 · 05:15P. Kurek—51111143K. Kowalski—1166121
WJul 25 · 13:05P. Kurek—1111123K. Kowalski—99100
WJul 25 · 06:55P. Kurek—1111113K. Kowalski—6690
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
K. Kowalski10
LSep 3 · 14:20O. Vincenec1.28711119113K. Kowalski3.5011841172LSep 3 · 13:30M. Sikon1.3011811113K. Kowalski3.40811891LSep 3 · 11:25I. Szymanski1.441114113K. Kowalski2.6331280LSep 3 · 10:35R. Gajda1.53111149113K. Kowalski2.3847111192LSep 3 · 07:45K. Kowalski6.50116761P. Kurek1.1081111113LSep 3 · 06:30K. Kowalski3.50107100O. Vincenec1.281211123LSep 3 · 05:15K. Kowalski2.63341151I. Szymanski1.4411117113LSep 3 · 04:10R. Gajda1.5311311113K. Kowalski2.38811571LSep 3 · 03:25K. Kowalski3.259780M. Sikon1.331111113WAug 13 · 13:55R. Gajda1.40117891K. Kowalski2.7571111113
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